“Not a good week at all. I think we’ll definitely feel the change in weather coming next week,” Shiviti said.
Heavy rain and strong northerly winds arrive from the warm, moist tropics early in the week week to kick off the shift in weather.
“Monday and Tuesday, at this stage, for our severe weather outlook, we have the top of the North Island, which is Northland, expecting a chance for severe gales.
“And simultaneously for Fiordland, we are expecting a moderate chance for heavy rain on Monday.”
Flooding earlier this month in Tasman District after the Moutere River spilled its banks. Photo / Tim Cuff
On Tuesday, heavy rain will batter a large portion of New Zealand.
“We are expecting heavy rain for a lot of the country. So that would be the top of the North Island from Northland all the way down to Taupō, including Bay of Plenty and Taranaki, so everywhere in between.
“And then continuing with the heavy rain for the western half of the South Island as well. So that would be your Marlborough Sounds, Nelson and down all the way to Fiordland.”
Stronger wind speeds are also expected for most of these regions.
Flooding over recent weeks left homes in Nelson, Tasman and Marlborough uninhabitable, roads damaged and properties inundated with floodwaters in what was described by local authorities as a “one-in-100-year event”.
Tasman Mayor Tim King said although it’s early days, the next event has the potential to be significant, especially given the recent floods the community endured.
“Residents are strongly encouraged to prepare for potential flooding. Now is a good time to take reasonable measures to ensure your safety and that of your neighbours,” King said.
Shiviti said he was not yet able to comment on the severity of the coming weather.
“The only thing I can say is that at this stage, we have a high confidence that a lot of those areas that I mentioned will have heavy rain.
“It’s a bit tricky at this stage to sort of gauge what numbers they might get.”
Slight easing expected on Wednesday
Shiviti said the heavy rain was set to impact the entire week, but there might be an easing period on Wednesday.
However, a second system was expected to make landfall over the North Island on Thursday, so the break for the North Island would be short-lived.
“Going into Wednesday, we are expecting things to ease off over the South Island. However, there’s still a low chance that rain may be heavy in parts of the North Island.”
That would include areas like Waitomo, Taupō, Rotorua and Bay of Plenty, he said.
New Zealand is forecast to cop a seven-day drenching next week. Photo / Carson Bluck
Second hit of bad weather
Shiviti saida low-pressure system and its associated front would impact the latter part of the week.
“Looking at our guidance, I see there is another low expected to develop in the Tasman Sea and then start making its way towards New Zealand.
“This may start affecting the North Island as it comes from the northeast, from around Thursday to Friday,” Shiviti said.
This system may continue to bring heavy rain into next weekend.
