I’ve been to the States many times and I have one major observation.
Politics and
indeed everyday life, has grown increasingly polarised, with major parties (Democrats and Republicans) embracing more distinct ideologies connected to culture and people’s defining view of themselves as individuals and what they stand for.
There’s no time in modern discourse to explain your views, so Maga or liberals tell everyone in one word where you sit on the spectrum and what you believe. There is no exchange of ideas or compromise.
Often pitted at the extremes, more moderate people are either forced to choose a side or step back and not engage, allowing each loud partisan side to move further to their respective extremes. This has also led to less compromise and more gridlock in government, reinforcing political and societal divisions.
Life-long bipartisans like Joe Biden and the late John McCain now look like dinosaurs in modern political life. There is precious little “reaching across the aisle,” a term once embraced by many voters but now seen as a sign of weakness or even treachery.
Media fragmentation has heightened these divisions. It’s harder to get offside with your neighbours if you are all consuming the same news. However, the rise of social media and 24-hour news cycles has enabled people to consume information that aligns with their views, creating echo chambers and intensifying divisions. Algorithms prioritise sensational and divisive content, further fuelling polarisation.
Economic inequality has always divided us politically. Income and wealth disparities have expanded over recent decades, leading to resentment and a sense that the “American Dream” is out of reach for many.
People’s economic realities shape their views on issues like health care, education, and taxation, further entrenching divisions. Trump has played on this spectacularly well with white voters who live paycheck to paycheck.
Once mainly Democrats, this group now view the liberal elite with disdain as they have perceived they have eroded their economic futures through policies such as free trade, while protecting their own positions in society.
This distrust of so-called elites now extends to the institutions they control on behalf of the people. Many Americans have lost faith in key institutions like government, media, and even science, partly because of past failures, misinformation, and corruption. This distrust makes consensus-building difficult, as people are less likely to trust leaders or experts.
Another part of the mixture of division that we see playing out is racial and cultural shifts in the US, combined with heightened awareness of systemic injustices. These have led to both progress and backlash, but no meeting in the middle. Debates around immigration, racial justice, and national identity fuel polarised viewpoints and drive fear among some voters who either don’t feel culturally comfortable in a modern US or who may believe rhetoric around the dangers to communities from illegal migrants.
Division and debate based on geography is nothing new to the US when you examine its history. In fact, the nation’s Constitution is a careful compromise to balance those parochial interests and identities. Differences in values and lifestyles between urban and rural areas have grown more pronounced, however. These areas often vote very differently, with urban areas leaning liberal and rural areas leaning conservative, leading to a political and cultural divide. Never so obvious is this but in the state of Pennsylvania, which was described by famed Clinton campaign operative James Carville as, “Pittsburgh, Philadelphia with Alabama in between”.
My prediction come November 5 honestly I just do not know. I think Pennsylvania, however, is the state to watch and the vibe I get is that Trump is gaining traction.
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