For central government there are two ways of reading local body results. The first is what they will mean for the general election next year.
The second is what the results mean for central government's ability to have its way: Three Waters reform, RMA reform and public transport investment, all priorities for the current Government, will now face the heat of a swathe of centre-right mayors.
Central government can ultimately have everything its way, but Labour now has to ponder whether it wants to go to war with a nation of right-wing mayors over Three Waters and RMA reform, or whether to drop or modify the policies (modification being far more likely) in recognition of the fact the electorate in many, perhaps most, parts of the country appears to have rejected them (we should note that Brown's left-of-centre predecessor Phil Goff was also a Three Waters sceptic, seeing very little benefit for Auckland).
On the first point, mayoralties falling to the right appear to reflect what we've seen in this year's opinion polling: there has been a nationwide swing to the right and against Labour in particular (Labour had quite far to fall, given it won half the vote in 2020).
Ardern made two personal mayoral endorsements, first, of Wellington's Paul Eagle, second, of Collins in Auckland - both lost convincingly. Incredibly, Eagle - a sitting MP who started the race as favourite - came fourth. Their astonishing and convincing losses are at least in part a repudiation of Ardern's once unshakable star power.
Left-of-centre mayors gave way to right-of-centre mayors in Auckland, Rotorua, Christchurch, and Dunedin. A full national picture of the results is yet to emerge, but in the major centres - the places a party needs to soak up party votes to win a general election - voters appear to have swung right.
You could easily read too much into the results. In the case of Auckland, Rotorua and Christchurch, incumbent mayors were leaving, creating space for a challenge to open up.
In Auckland, the city might have been reacting against more than a decade of left-wing rule and the massive disruption taking place downtown (ironically, much of this disruption is in the service of things like the City Rail Link which are designed to make the city less disruptive).
There may have even been some residual grumpiness at the city's yoyo-ing lockdowns during the pandemic.
National leader Christopher Luxon was quick to suggest that Three Waters played a role in the nationwide tilt to the right.
In a press release congratulating successful candidates, Luxon said that with "Labour tearing out the heart of local government with its Three Waters reforms, the role of local democracy has never been more important".
Ardern's statement did not comment on specific results, but wisely stressed she would work with mayors to "do the best by our local communities".
One change we may see is long-awaited reform of how local body elections are run - something MPs tasked with reviewing local body elections have been calling for the better part of a decade now.
Ardern's statement said she wanted to "make voting more accessible. Greater participation in elections is good for democracy!".
The comment correlated with a remark made by Collins which suggested one of the reasons he performed poorly is the hodgepodge way local body elections are conducted, which has resulted in terrible turnout.
At the time of writing, the major exception to this swing occurred in Wellington.
The staunchly left-wing city can be a stretch for the right to win. While Labour certainly lost Wellington - the result probably won't worry the party too much (beyond the vexing question of what to do with Eagle, who must now awkwardly return to Labour's caucus) as Wellington voters opted to swing further left, electing former Green Party chief of staff Tory Whanau as mayor.
If there's a silver lining for the left it is the performance of Whanau in Wellington. Written off as the third horse in a two-horse race, Whanau won convincingly.
It could have been a bad night for the Greens (the party lost the Dunedin mayoralty), but Whanau's win will give them a shot of adrenaline.
Much like Chlöe Swarbrick's victory in the Auckland Central electorate, Whanau's use of grassroots local campaigning appears to have paid off - the feat is perhaps even more impressive given the voters Whanau was targeting are notoriously fickle when it comes to actually showing up and voting, particularly in local body campaigns.
At their worst, the Greens can be all over the place, lacking discipline and direction (we saw evidence of that when they temporarily ousted co-leader James Shaw in July). At their best, they clearly run a lethal ground campaign. The party obviously recognises it's on to something and recently appointed Pearl Little, who had been the Whanau campaign's strategic communications manager, to be the party's new press secretary.
Neighbouring Hutt City also re-elected (just) a Labour mayor, Campbell Barry. The tight race suggests an interesting battle for the seat at the next election, when Labour's incumbent Ginny Andersen goes up against National's Chris Bishop, who won the seat in 2017 and is eager to get it back.
The right should not count its chickens. In the United States, mid-term congressional elections famously tend to swing away from the sitting President. The theory is that voters like to give their leader a bloody nose and let them know who is in charge. That job done, it does not necessarily mean the general election will repeat the results of the local body one.
Voters may decide a chastened Ardern, bruised by local body defeat and shorn of her outright parliamentary majority, is still the person they want as Prime Minister.
But it's no sure thing. There'll be no stardust in 2023 - there'll be a slog.
