Last season's top New Zealand stayer Showcause has a Melbourne Cup start swinging on his performance in tomorrow's Lexus Stakes at Flemington.
Showcause has to win the A$250,000 Lexus to have a chance of making the Melbourne Cup.
The Lexus winner gains automatic entry to the Cup, for which Showcause is currently 37th in order of entry.
"Look, there will be some attrition above him with dropouts, there always is, but it's hoping for too much to think that more than 10 will fall away," said trainer Frank Ritchie.
"Our only chance is to win the Lexus."
The Showcause plight underscores how difficult it is to get a Melbourne Cup start for a Downunder horse with the increasing invasion of Europeans, which has reached an all-time high this year.
Showcause won the New Zealand Cup, City Of Auckland Cup and the Avondale Cup last season and can't get closer than 37th in order of entry.
Ritchie and his syndicate of owners had a "reality" meeting this week.
"We decided that even if he was qualified to start we would pay up the A$49,000 final acceptance on Saturday night only if he won the Lexus, or was second.
"If he finished third in the Lexus we would have a meeting about whether to start or not.
"But all that has been taken from our hands with his position on the qualifying list."
Showcause finished a good fourth in a strong Geelong Cup after a less than impressive ride by Luke Nolen.
Tomorrow he will be ridden by Craig Newitt at 53.5kg.
Fellow New Zealander Booming, already in the Melbourne Cup field, will also start in the Lexus with 56.5kg.
In Australian charts last night Showcause was at $12 and Booming $15. Hardest to beat is likely to be the Caulfield Cup runner-up Green Moon.
Lightning and rain is forecast for Melbourne today, but Flemington has such remarkable drying qualities the footing for tomorrow is not expected to be drastically affected unless there is persistent rain tomorrow.
Which is great news because tomorrow's nine-race card is regarded by many as equal to any in the world.
The Rogerson-trained Dowager Queen is the $6 second favourite behind the $1.20 hotpot Atlantic Jewel in the A$300,000 Wakeful Stakes.
Atlantic Jewel has been unbeatable up to 1600m and faces her first test at 2000m tomorrow.
Speed sensation Sepoy is also short at $1.25 for the A$500,000 Coolmore Stakes.
New Zealand has Wall Street and Ginga Dude as representatives in the A$1 million Mackinnon Stakes. Wall Street, who put in a remarkable effort in last week's Cox Plate, is at $12 and Ginga Dude $21.
Rekindled Interest, luckless in the Cox Plate is the $3.70 favourite.
Cambridge trainer Trent Busuttin has the promising Sangster in the A$1.5 million Victoria Derby. Sangster's form has been very useful and he is rated a $11 chance.
Peter and Philip Vela have Banchee and Guiseppina in the A$500,000 Myers Classic, although Guiseppina is a ballot.
Banchee has been priced at $34 and Guiseppina at $26.
Classy Sydney mare More Joyous is the favourite at $2.50.