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Scientists have published the first results of a nationwide sampling project targeting bird flu
A ‘low-pathogenic’ strain was detected in red knots, but there’s no sign yet of the high-risk H5N1 that’s spread elsewhere in world
A planning document released under the Official Information Act reveals how New Zealand would respond to a human outbreak of bird flu
Scientists have detected a “low-pathogenic” avian flu in a shorebird known to migrate here – but there’s no trace yet of a dangerous strain that has wiped out hundreds of millions of birds worldwide.
A virologist co-leading the nationwide sampling effort, however, says it’s a “matter of time” before the deadly H5N1 strain arrives.
Scientists fear it could devastate some of New Zealand’s endangered native populations – and officials say options beyond vaccination and spreading them to multiple locations would be “limited”.
Their first published results come as a contingency plan released under the Official Information Act reveals how the health system would respond to an H5N1 outbreak in humans.
Oceania remains the last region yet to record a case of H5N1, which has killed nearly 300 million birds worldwide, including tens of thousands of endangered and endemic species.
Scientists have been alarmed at how quickly it’s been able to evolve and spread over the past few years – and the threat of an incursion in NZ prompted a programme to sample known hot-spots around New Zealand and its outer islands for migratory birds.
Department of Conservation-supported sampling between last November and March, covering the 2023-24 migration, showed no sign of H5N1 among more than 30 wild aquatic birds and nearly 1400 samples.
The stand-out result was a single detection of a low pathogenic of avian flu - subtype H1N9 – in red knots in the Firth of Thames in March, just before they flew out of the country.
“This virus is distantly related to avian influenza viruses previously sampled in Australia and Asia, which makes sense given these birds migrate annually via the East Asian Australasian Flyway,” Otago University virologist Professor Jemma Geoghegan said.
Otago University virologist Professor Jemma Geoghegan.
Given that the birds sampled during the project were all seemingly healthy, the team was not expecting to find high-pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) strains.
“However, the now broad host range that HPAI subtypes can infect and the fact that the virus isn’t necessarily highly pathogenic in all hosts - it is reassuring to have this knowledge, especially now as the migratory season begins again.”
Geoghegan didn’t expect New Zealand to stay free of the big-risk strains forever.
“HPAI has so far reached every continent except for here; I think it’s a matter of time before HPAI does arrive in New Zealand,” she said.
“This sort of expanded sampling over time can give us an insight into the potential incursion pathways the virus might take when it does get here.”
Government agencies have spent the past year readying a coordinated response in the event of an incursion, which would be led by Biosecurity New Zealand.
The agency’s director for diagnostics, readiness and surveillance, Dr Fleur Francois, didn’t see the single case of H1N9 as a concern, given low-pathogenic strains were endemic and regularly detected in the country.
Francois said a pilot programme run with Dunedin Wildlife Hospital had similarly found no H5N1 among 60 species – including penguins, albatross and New Zealand falcons – nor had other testing around the country.
Once H5N1 arrived, she said it was unlikely it would be able to be eradicated, and officials had been working with poultry farmers on potential measures like depopulation, decontamination and movement controls.
South Korean soldiers national veterinary and quarantine service bury ducks at a duck farm affected by a highly pathogenic avian influenza in Cheonan, southeast of Seoul. Photo / Getty Images
“A key focus now for industry is ensuring farmers and growers have robust on-farm biosecurity plans in place before an incursion.”
Documents released by Health New Zealand and the Ministry of Health also showed what actions would kick in if a human HPAI case was detected here.
The case would be immediately isolated, a rapid investigation would be ordered to find the source, and treatment with an antiviral like Tamiflu would be given.
As an outbreak could mean a high number of exposed people, the plan recommended a “stratified” approach with more intensive management and monitoring of those at highest risk.
“If any exposed people develop symptoms, they should urgently be assessed as a possible case,” the plan said.
The plan also considered quarantining vessels and implementing a pre-pandemic vaccination policy for workers at risk of exposure, such as veterinary staff and poultry handlers.
While instances of people being infected by HPAI have been rare - it’s been reported in fewer than 1000 people – the case fatality rate was higher than 50%.
Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.
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