Rise and fall tipped for New Zealand Europeans

European New Zealanders will make up just 69 per cent of the population in 2021, down from 79 per cent in 2001, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Population projections show that the annual growth rate of the European population is set to fall from 0.5 per cent in 2002 to -0.1 per cent by 2021, due to a combination of lower fertility rates among European women, a net out-migration, and an older age structure.

The European population is set to increase from 3.07 million at June 20, 2001 to 3.12 million in 2010, before dropping slightly to 3.1 million in 2021.

These figures, based on the 2001 census, contrast with earlier projections of 3.46 million for 2021.

European women have lower fertility rates than other ethnicities, averaging 1.75 births per woman compared with the replacement level fertility of 2.1.

European births are projected to decrease from 39,000 in 2002 to 33,000 in 2011, due to a declining number of European women of child-bearing age, and then remain stable.

The number of European deaths will increase from 24,000 in 2002 to 28,000 in 2021 because of the greater number of older people.

By 2021, half the European population will be older than 44 years, compared with a median age of 37 years in 2001. The median age of the total New Zealand population is projected to rise from 35 years in 2001 to 40 years in 2021.

Projections of other ethnic populations released this year showed that, by 2021, the Asian population would more than double to 600,000, the Pacific population would reach 414,000 and Maori 749,000. People who identified with more than one ethnicity have been included in each ethnic population.

- NZPA