Ring prediction dismissed

Award-winning scientist and Wairarapa son David Winter has rubbished warnings from Ken 'Moon Man' Ring that a major earthquake is about to strike Christchurch.
Mr Ring, an astrological weather forecaster who used to read cats' paws for a living, claims to have predicted the deadly earthquake that struck Christchurch on February 22 using a lunar phase theory that both land and sea shift upon their beds when the Moon nears the Earth.
Since the quake last month, Mr Ring has warned Canterbury will suffer "an extreme event, perhaps a large earthquake, around March 20".
Counsellors treating traumatised survivors in Christchurch say the prediction has terrified people and the panic became widespread enough for Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, chief scientific adviser to the Prime Minister, to reject the claims.
Mr Winter, 29, last year became one of only three New Zealanders to win the prestigious Ernst Mayr award for systematic biology, and is in his final year of study toward a PhD in evolutionary genetics at the University of Otago.
He said he had viewed a network news interview of Mr Ring about his latest claim and "was up all night" writing a blog that tears gaping holes in the lunar phase theory of quake prediction.
"I feel strongly about a place for critical thinking and science and life in general, and about having the responsibility to check what you're saying before you say it.
"Especially when there's a tragedy like Christchurch that leaves people really scared and really desperate to know if they might have to go through it again," Mr Winter said.
"I saw the show and heard what Mr Ring had to say and thought 'something has to be out there'."
Mr Winter, who in Dunedin felt both the September and February earthquakes that struck the Garden City, on Thursday night appeared on the same network news show that featured the controversial quake theory.
His blog has been syndicated on the National Business Review website and his views aired in several other forums.
Mr Winter said he had emailed Mr Ring in vain "for help with my article", which also serves up data sets comparing February lunar phases with concurrent aftershock patterns in Canterbury, and a Bayesien mathematical breakdown of the Ring quake claims and their accuracy.
"Scientists can't predict earthquakes at the moment and we should be honest about that. Not just make predictions up - like Ken Ring does."
Mr Winter, speaking as a student of genetic evolution, said cognitive and hindsight bias are possible reasons for a critical mass of people believing the Ring quake claims.
"It just seems to be the way our brains work. We skip over the claims that don't work and focus on the hits; when we should really be testing the hypothesis, not just blindly believing it."
Mr Ring has predicted 221 days of increased earthquake risk for New Zealand this year. Sir Peter Gluckman said that worldwide there was a magnitude 8 quake each year, and one magnitude 7 every three weeks.
Mr Ring could not be reached for comment.
GNS Science yesterday recorded several tremors centred in Canterbury, where there have been 5616 quakes at an average of 28 a day since September 4. The largest tremor recorded in the region yesterday was a 5.1 magnitude aftershock that shook Christchurch at 9.47pm and caused minor damage to a corner dairy.