NZ Herald data journalist Julia Gabel explains all you need to know about special votes ahead of release to the public on November 3. Video / NZ Herald
Whether National and Act will need the support of New Zealand First to form a Government will soon be known as the Electoral Commission prepares to publish the final vote count on Friday.
It comes as National Party leader Christopher Luxon has been meeting separately withAct’s David Seymour and NZ First’s Winston Peters over the past two weeks to try to ensure a fast - and smooth - transition into a new Government, bringing to an end six years of Labour-led Government.
The final results, to be unveiled at 2pm Friday, will also reveal the political fortunes of half a dozen candidates in seats with tight margins on election night, which could also affect the list MPs elected in the two major parties, National and Labour.
For example, National’s Gerry Brownlee is currently on track to return to Parliament on the party list. But if National holds all of its electorate seats and loses two list seats - as has occurred in the past two elections - the veteran MP, who has been mooted as the potential next Speaker, could be pushed out.
On election night, October 14, the preliminary results delivered a one-seat majority to National and Act, acquiring 50 and 11 seats respectively.
At 61 seats together they made up just over half of the 121 seats in Parliament (there is currently a one-seat overhang due to Te Pāti Māori winning more electorate seats than their party vote share).
The reason for the uncertainty about that result holding is that a record estimated 567,000 people cast special votes - or just over 20 per cent of all votes.
These include votes cast overseas, by people outside their electorate and anyone who needed to update their details at the time of voting.
The long time-frame to determine the final results has drawn some criticism, but it also includes a legally required 10 days for special votes to be returned from overseas and 13 days for special votes cast in New Zealand to be returned to their home electorate. It has also been argued to be the cost of making voting easier and more accessible.
Based on a Herald analysis of special votes since 1999, all of the parties that have gained seats in Parliament following the declaration of the official results have been left-leaning. National has lost at least one seat in every election bar one since 1999. (Access the Herald’s interactive special vote tool here.)
Election law expert Graeme Edgeler previously told the Herald this was because many of those needing to update their details were people who had changed house recently, who were typically younger and often left-leaning.
In 2017, the final vote count saw National’s initial seat allocation reduced by two while Labour and the Greens gained one seat each.
In 2020, once again, special votes leaned left and National had two fewer seats than the election night result predicted.
The left/right distribution of votes on election night in 2017 and 2023 is very similar, meaning it could be indicative of the final results.
If the percentage difference between election night and special votes is the same as in 2017 and Te Pāti Māori didn’t win any more seats, then National would have three fewer seats than the election-night result predicted, and Labour and the Greens would each pick up a seat (the third seat would be in Te Pāti Māori losing the overhang as its party vote share increases).
These scenarios would also mean National and Act would not have enough seats to govern alone and would need to bring NZ First into the picture.
Another variable is that the left-lean of special votes is likely to see a small increase in the party vote share for Te Pāti Māori, which would take away its overhang seat.
Analysis of the advance voting versus voting on election day appears to show a swing away from National over the course of the two-week voting period, with Labour and NZ First gaining small increases.
National dropped five points comparing the two different election counts, while Labour increased one point and NZ First gained 1.4 percentage points.
Illustration / Rod Emmerson
The seats to watch
There are about seven electorate seats with a decent chance of flipping after the final votes have been counted.
The closest is in the typically Labour stronghold Te Atatū, where National’s Angee Nicholas is ahead of Labour’s Phil Twyford by just 31 votes.
The second-closest electorate race is in Nelson, where National’s Cameron Blair is ahead of Labour’s Rachel Boyack by 54 votes.
In Banks Peninsula, which covers parts of southern Christchurch and rural areas and towns, National’s Vanessa Weenink holds an 83-seat lead over Labour incumbent Tracey McLellan.
Another seat that could flip is Mt Albert, another Labour stronghold that MP Helen White currently holds by just 106 votes over National’s Melissa Lee. The electorate, vacated after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stepped down this year, has elected only Labour Party MPs since it was first contested at the 1946 election.
There are also two interesting battles in the Māori electorates, with Te Pāti Māori typically performing well in special votes.
In Te Tai Tokerau, Labour’s Kelvin Davis holds a 487-vote lead over Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Davis has held that seat since 2014.
There is a similarly close contest in Tāmaki Makaurau, where Labour’s Peeni Henare is ahead of Te Pāti Māori’s Takutai Tarsh Kemp by 495 votes.
Henare has also held that seat since 2014.
Other close seats to watch include Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Hutt South.
Along with close electorate seats some of the list MPs on the cusp will also be watching nervously.
Applying a similar shift based on the 2017 election special vote results, National could drop three seats with one each going to Labour and the Green Party.
This could see Labour’s Vanushi Walters return and the Green Party’s Kahurangi Carter enter Parliament.
For National, and if its electorates all held as currently, MPs Melissa Lee, Brownlee and Andrew Bayly might not make it back in.
A drop of two seats would see Lee return safely but for Brownlee a drop of only one is needed, as occurred in 2014.
Bayly is likely to enter Parliament regardless as the favourite to win the Port Waikato byelection. This would see Parliament get an overhang of one seat.
