Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces senior Cabinet ministers will take over the Broadcasting and Disability Issues portfolios. Video / Mark Mitchell
Opinion by Claire Trevett
Claire Trevett is the New Zealand Herald’s Political Editor, based at Parliament in Wellington.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is a big fan of the Yellowstone drama series and ministers may be starting to worry he is adopting a similar justice system to that used by its lead character, John Dutton.
That involves taking those who have wronged the Yellowstone Ranch orits people “to the train station”.
The train station is a canyon on the border of Montana and Wyoming into which the bodies of various enemies are tipped on a very regular basis. The appeal is that it is a jurisdictional black hole.
Luxon’s version of this is metaphorical, of course.
The ranch Luxon seeks to protect is his Government’s reputation and, by extension, his own pledge to run things better than the last lot.
The past week has shown he takes a dim view of any ministers who might sully things. There was some irony in this happening in the same week as he announced the return of the Three Strikes sentencing regime for serious offenders.
One of his pitches to the fractured caucus and the public was that he was so new to Parliament that he had not been involved in the infighting that beset the rest of them. He had no grudges or favourites.
Two and a half years later, he has, by and large, stayed true to that.
He started off by staring down those in his caucus who were still in a state of shock after the 2020 drubbing by rehabilitating Judith Collins and Todd Muller. He also made sure enough of Simon Bridges’ loyalists were rewarded.
That does not mean he has turned a blind eye to the existence of those factions, even if they are a lot happier these days courtesy of Beehive offices.
However, there are still loose groupings of MPs who are close to each other and hold similar beliefs, and certain levels of mistrust for some of their colleagues. If Luxon gets a bit too vigorous in his reshuffles, he risks upsetting the wider caucus and seeding a perception of chaos.
Luxon and Simmonds knew each other well, and Luxon has a high regard for her steady head. That is courtesy of being in the same 2020 intake. He did not know Lee as well. However, Lee has been an MP for a long time and was part of the more conservative part of the National caucus.
The need to include the so-called liberals, the conservatives, the old-timers and the new was at play when he put his Cabinet together.
Simmonds and Lee still have a chance to prove themselves, especially Simmonds who foundered largely because of inexperience.
Usually, new ministers are given time to work things out and a nursemaid is called in for trouble spots. Simmonds still has a chance to prove herself in tertiary education in particular. She was apparently relieved to drop the disabilities role to allow her to do that.
Once she has that experience under her belt, she should be able to handle problems similar to those she hit in the disabilities portfolio.
Melissa is facing short-term humiliation for her fate. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Lee is facing short-term humiliation for her fate. However, her work in ethnic affairs is appreciated by the leadership: a portfolio that demands a lot from a minister in staying in touch with the various communities they deal with. Communities that then turn out to vote.
Lee was also appointed as economic development minister because of her experience and because she was seen as good at co-ordinating between the range of other ministers within that area.
Comparisons to Sir John Key dispatching Phil Heatley and Kate Wilkinson in 2014 are not accurate. Key’s motive was to make room for new ministers. His strategy was to keep hope alive in his backbench by showing they stood a chance of a promotion.
It resulted in a new verb: to be Heatleyed meant to be sacked for no real reason other than being ordinary.
At this point, Luxon has the opposite problem: National has a large backbench but they are mainly new and inexperienced.
Few are ready to be ministers and he already has a number of 2020 and 2023 MPs in his Cabinet and wider ministry – including National, Act and NZ First ministers.
That will change as those newer MPs build up experience and start to get hungry for more. When that happens it will pay to remember the need to keep the backbench optimistic.
Five months on from the set-up of the new government, we have seen how he treats a weak link and we are also finding out who Luxon has assessed as his “safe hands”.
His finance minister Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop go without saying.
Paul Goldsmith was initially moved up into the kitchen cabinet to fill the so-called “Bridges camp” hole left by Simon Bridges. His stocks dropped after an unfortunate accident with a fiscal hole during the 2020 campaign. He has earned his way into Luxon’s trust.
Simeon Brown is also held in high regard and is becoming increasingly important for Luxon. Louise Upston is clearly seen as a safe pair of hands by Luxon and Willis.
Come the time Luxon dials up the next trip to train station, those ministers at risk need only talk to their fellow travellers who have been there before and come back.
The most obvious comeback queen is Collins, who was taken to the train station by Key, promptly clawed her way back onto the platform, went on a wild ride in which the public voted for her to go to the train station in 2020 – and is now one of Luxon’s solid hands.
Claire Trevett is the Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.
