This may well have been a good Budget - if it was delivered this time next year.
Right now it is risky to freeze government spending.
It is based on a strong pick-up in the economy.
But that recovery at this point only exists in economists' forecasts.
It isnot there yet, plain for all to see, in the data coming out of Statistics NZ.
There are huge uncertainties around the forecasts and the risks, as economists like to say, are "to the downside".
It is only three months since the heart of our second largest city collapsed.
No one yet knows all the ramifications and repercussions of that disaster - twice as big, relative to the size of the economy, as what has befallen Japan.
But we do know that they are not all good.
Another unknown is how much the big build-up of debt up by households and, crucially, farmers during the last decade will offset the boost from high export prices and low mortgage rates - while they last.
The Government emphasises the need not to leave a burden of debt to future taxpayers.
But this is not the last Budget there will ever be. It is not now or never.
The Budget needs to be judged against the alternative of leaving the previous allowance for $1.1 billion of net new spending on the table, while the economy is still fragile, and waiting to see in May next year how strong the recovery actually is.
Because that $1.1 billion is income people will not now have. It represents less demand in economy that is still short of demand.
