Covid 19 coronavirus: The political headache awaiting Jacinda Ardern and Labour that could see voters flee

OPINION

Being unvaccinated has been likened to keeping your house lights on at night during a bombing blitz: you're exercising your right to do as you please, but you're endangering yourself and everyone around you.

Those people aren't in much danger right now because the skies have been cleared in the form of our mostly Covid-impenetrable borders.

But that will change as the borders start to reopen next year.

If that is delayed, resentment towards those with the house lights still on might simmer over into resentment towards the Government for keeping the lid on Fortress NZ to protect them.

And the Prime Minister may find herself morally obliged to protect them if the unvaccinated cohort is large - but it would come at a political cost.

So the big questions for Jacinda Ardern are: how many people need to get vaccinated before the lid can be lifted, and should it happen anyway if the rollout finishes and we're not there yet?

Yesterday she said the answer to the former wasn't a political decision, but one that should be based on the best health and science advice.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will face some voter blowback if she sticks with Fortress NZ to protect those who have chosen not to get vaccinated. Photo / Mark Mitchell

But there was no such advice from the expert panel chaired by Sir David Skegg, even though it was invited to provide it.

The panel said if enough people are vaccinated, the borders can start to be opened while maintaining the elimination course.

But it didn't say how many people that would be, only that the borders shouldn't be liberated until the rollout is done and dusted.

Deciding when that will be is the crux of the latter question.

How many chances should the unvaccinated get? If we waited a month longer and 5000 more people got jabbed, would that be worth it?

Skegg says there's no way to know right now what a precise vaccination target will be in six months, which is entirely reasonable, but it makes Ardern's already difficult decision even harder.

A similar expert panel in Australia said there remained many unknowns in the future Covid-world, but that didn't stop it from considering what extra freedoms could be enjoyed at different levels of coverage of the eligible population.

The Australian Government's roadmap to open up is based on this advice: there may be fewer restrictions once 70 per cent are vaccinated, and once 80 per cent is reached, international travel may open up more.

Sir David Skegg chairs an expert panel advising the Government on how the borders might reopen. Photo / Supplied

It would be safe to assume Ardern would consider 50 per cent coverage - or 63 per cent of the eligible population - too low.

That would leave 2.5 million people unvaccinated, and the impact of a Delta outbreak - on the vaccinated and unvaccinated - would be compounded by an overrun health service. Thousands could die.

The latest Ministry of Health-commissioned survey, from June, estimates potential uptake at 77 per cent, or 3.1 million people getting vaccinated. That would leave 2 million people unvaccinated.

The equivalent 80 per cent threshold in Australia translates in New Zealand to 1.85 million people unvaccinated, including just over 1 million under-16s.

Would that still mean potentially hundreds of deaths, and if so, would that be politically acceptable?

Skegg's group says any spread from overseas arrivals could be minimised by some form of MIQ, post-MIQ tracking, and testing for travellers before departure, on arrival, on day 3 and in the second week.

Ardern can also minimise the potential for large outbreaks by bolstering contact-tracing, expanding health system capacity, and mandating QR scanning in high-risk venues before any border moves.

Ardern is responding to the group's advice today, but don't expect anything definitive about when a phased re-opening might start. Doing so would be problematic given how much can change between now and then.

But political lines in the sand are already being drawn.

Act leader David Seymour says the borders should open at the start of next year regardless of whether the rollout is finished, and the Government shouldn't keep the borders shut to protect those who have chosen not to get vaccinated.

Expect Ardern to continue as she has so far by striving to keep Kiwis alive and out of hospital, which has also been the best economic response. That also means keeping the borders closed to some extent to protect the unvaccinated.

By the end of the year, she may even get a reprieve if the Skegg group, considering the most up-to-date information, provides a best estimate of a vaccination target.

Fortress NZ may still be the best response well into next year as other countries open up and find their defences against Delta - or a more dangerous variant - inadequate.

But that would risk voter blowback from Kiwis who are fed up with living close to those who insist on keeping the lights on in a bombing raid.