Aucklanders' travel times will increase sizeably if no change is made. Photo / Nick Reed
Aucklanders’ travel times could increase sizeably by 2055 if no significant changes are made to transport settings, modelling by the Ministry of Transport suggests.
The ministry said its findings are illustrative and may not materialise, as the model doesn’t consider improvements to the transport network, such as adding more capacity or introducing tools like demand management. However, the findings still “offer interesting insights about the future”.
As well as investing in commuter rail and roads, time-of-use charging is something being looked at by the Government. It involves charging motorists travelling through high-traffic areas at certain times.
There was progress on that front last week, with a select committee recommending Government legislation pass allowing NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA) and local authorities to develop these schemes.
Without major changes from the current system, the Ministry of Transport modelling shows that due to population growth likely leading to increased road use, the average travel time for Aucklanders is predicted to increase from 18.6 minutes in 2023 to 25.2 minutes in 2055. This is the largest increase in travel time nationally.
Only the West Coast is expected to see no increase in travel times under the scenario modelled by the ministry. The increases are caused by people taking longer and slower trips on average, which “could suggest people are travelling greater distances due to urban sprawl or travelling more slowly due to congestion”.
Vehicle kilometres travelled are projected to increase in nearly every region of New Zealand by 2055, except for the West Coast, where the ministry says there is expected to be a population decrease relative to 2023.
New Zealanders are also expected to travel more consistently throughout the day, rather than at traditional peak times.
The modelling was done as part of the ministry’s Long-term Insights Briefing, released this week, which it’s required by law to complete at least once every three years. The reports are independent and aren’t Government policy.
This briefing used a model – called Monty – that creates a synthetic population of people (agents) and simulates their daily travel. This also includes freight activity.
One of the scenarios modelled was a 2055 national scenario based on median population growth projections but with no major changes to transport settings.
New Zealand’s population is expected to be 6.25 million in 2055, likely driven by migration. Growth is expected to occur in existing urban areas, especially in the upper North Island.
The model’s results were described as “not unexpected” by the ministry, with an increased population leading to increased road use and therefore increased travel time due to congestion.
Auckland would have the largest increase in travel times, to more than 25 minutes. While Waikato follows Auckland in terms of mean travel time in 2023, Northland overtakes it in 2055. Both regions’ mean travel time would be around 20 minutes, up from around 15.
“Between 2023 and 2055, the national mean speed per trip (across all modes but excluding freight) decreased from 37.48km/h to 30.92km/h, while the average trip length increased slightly from 9.66km to 10.03km.
“This suggests that significant population growth without corresponding changes to the transport network would lead to people travelling greater distances due to urban sprawl and/or travelling slower due to more congestion.”
In terms of non-freight vehicle kilometres travelled, there are increases in all regions bar the West Coast. Otago, the Bay of Plenty, Auckland, Canterbury, Waikato and Northland all have increases in vehicle kilometres travelled of over 30%.
The report says there are limitations to this scenario, including that StatsNZ population projections “are known to underestimate immigration”. The effect of this, the report says, is likely an increase in the effects associated with the number of network users.
“Our model is based on the current transport network and transport policy and does not include all the improvements (including new capacity and tools like demand management) that could be available in 2055,” the ministry said.
“We have assumed that freight will scale linearly with population growth, which does not account for the possibility of future events that significantly change the nature of freight demand.”
The briefing was released last week after a period of consultation on a draft report. Just 10 submissions were received from individuals, central and local government entities and interest groups.
They thought it was too narrow and could have gone further, with one submitter saying the findings “are quite predictable”. Among their suggestions were considering the impact of climate change and possible shocks like Covid-19 to the transport system.
The Government is pursuing a number of transport initiatives to help with congestion, including the time-of-use charging idea.
A report from the transport and infrastructure committee last week recommended legislation enabling these schemes be passed. It suggested some amendments, like strengthening provisions around how revenue is used.
The committee recommended revenue go to meeting operational costs and land transport activities in the region in a way that “contributes to an effective, efficient and safe land transport system in the public interest”.
“We consider that any net revenue should be spent on activities that improve the ability of people to move around the area affected by the scheme. We accept that some flexibility would be needed to ensure that revenue can be spent on useful activities not directly tied to the scheme.”
It said a local authority wanting to introduce congestion charging and the minister should reach an agreement that prioritises land transport activities that “improve the ability of people to move into, out of, within and around the scheme area”.
The Green Party had a differing view in the report, saying it supported the goal of the legislation but had some concerns.
Among its comments was that revenue should be spent on public and active transport infrastructure and services once the cost of operations was covered.
“Further investment in infrastructure projects that increase or maintain car-dependency by induced demand will mean the time-of-use scheme will not be as effective in actually reducing congestion; public and active transport infrastructure projects routinely reduce congestion in the immediate and long term.”
When introducing the legislation, Transport Minister Chris Bishop said modelling found it would encourage people to change time or mode of travel, reducing congestion by up to 8-12% at peak times.
“While time of use schemes will help manage congestion and increase productivity in our cities, it is not a standalone solution.
“The Government will continue to prioritise investment in growing and maintaining our transport network, including through the Roads of National Significance and Regional Significance and major public transport projects, to enable Kiwis and freight get to where they need to go, quickly and safely.”
Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald press gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. In 2025, he was a finalist for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.