That's the median estimate of hundreds of scenarios and models, and means a slowing of economic growth from about two per cent a year to 1.94 per cent.
Not doing anything - business as usual - will cost a lot more down the track, as much as 11 per cent of GDP by 2100.
Professor Stephen Wratten from Lincoln University's Bio-Protection Research Centre says that sort of thinking is profound. "There are endless reports that governments are ignoring, so putting a dollar figure on it through GDP may just cut through," he says.
The tide may also be turning in that stronghold of climate change denialism - the US, with the publication this month of the National Climate Assessment by the White House.
The report calls for urgent action, demonstrating that climate change is already having a serious impact across the United States. "There are things we can do about it, but it's only going to happen if the American people and people around the world take the challenges seriously. We'll end up saving money and lives in the long term," President Barack Obama told CBS.
Obama has made little headway with Congress, so he is forging ahead on his own, imposing carbon limits on power plants among other initiatives.
Meanwhile the news this month from NASA that the rapidly melting West Antarctic Ice Sheet has passed "the point of no return" has sounded alarm bells around the world by sharply increasing estimated sea level rises by up to 1.2 metres.
The time for action has arrived.
The Climate Change Solutions series is a joint project between Element and Lincoln University, which is intended to illuminate a pathway for a sustainable future.