Helen Clark is wise to warn that major breakthroughs should not be expected at this week's high-level meetings in Washington. It would be all too easy to get carried away with this, the first visit by a New Zealand Prime Minister to the White House since 1995, and the first by a Labour Party Prime Minister since 1975. This, however, will not be a time of dramatic gestures. Policies and politics dictate as much, as does the very nature of the two days of meetings, notably the tightness of the 30-minute session with President George W. Bush. It would, nonetheless, be a mistake to play down the significance of the Prime Minister's perambulation though Washington's corridors of power.
The importance of Helen Clark's visit, and the sizeable step it represents in the warming of relations between New Zealand and the United States, is revealed by her schedule. Aside from her meeting with President Bush, she will talk to a formidable array of Washington's most powerful. Included will be Secretary of State Colin Powell, a man with whom she has already established an apparent rapport, Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Trade Representative Bob Zoellick. Gaining the respect of those contacts is pivotal to setting the scene for more decisive collaboration at a later date.
The personal touch is especially important because both sides have reason to be hesitant. New Zealand's nuclear-free policy continues to bemuse the Americans. The Government's defence policy, incorporating the scrapping of the Air Force's combat wing, must be equally baffling. In turn, Wellington, while committing troops to the counter-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, sees no justification for extending the war to Iraq. The Prime Minister will also have to indicate New Zealand's displeasure at the imposition of tariffs to protect the stricken US steel industry.
There will be no movement on these issues. On the most enduring sticking point, Helen Clark has already reaffirmed New Zealand's no-nuclear policy. American attempts to engineer a relaxation of the ban on nuclear warships have gained no traction. That particular rift will simply have to be stepped around if rapprochement is to gather pace. Both sides seem to accept that. In effect, the issue will be corralled during the meeting with President Bush, with both sides agreeing to disagree.
The emphasis of the meetings, and basis for progress, will be the areas of common ground between Washington and Wellington. New Zealand's offer of elite SAS troops to the war in Afghanistan - even before they were requested - will be praised. There is the prospect of progress towards stronger military co-operation in the shape of joint exercises. Likewise, there will be accord over the importance of progressing the World Trade Organisation round.
The Prime Minister will also raise the question of a free trade pact with the US. Here, again, there is unlikely to be an immediate green light. American trade policy is focused on the WTO; the prospects of a bilateral deal with New Zealand have faded in the past few months. President Bush, with congressional elections late this year, is loath to alienate American dairy farmers by pursuing such an agreement.
A free trade pact may, however, become a more realistic prospect next year. Elections will be out of the way and the Senate should have authorised the President to negotiate such agreements. A deal with New Zealand would advance his trade liberalisation credentials. For New Zealand, of course, such an agreement represents the real prize from rapprochement with the US. Its very lucrativeness makes Helen Clark's meeting with President Bush and Mr Zoellick hugely important.
In total, the Prime Minister's impressive list of meetings in Washington represents a rare opportunity to create respect for New Zealand and understanding of its position. And to reinforce the fact that, whatever the differences between the two nations, they are far outweighed by common currency. Done well, the visit offers the basis for a significant step towards a normal, mutually profitable relationship.
<i>Editorial:</i> Personal touch key to talks with US
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