Can you believe it - a year today until the presidential election in the United States.

And is it not a remarkable thing, that as the Democrats move forward at pace with their impeachment process, and they do so with a growing theme, if not chorus, that Donald Trump looks more and more likely to win a second term?

Remarkable, given for the better part of his first term Trump was a joke, Trump was the mistake that wouldn't be made again.


As he enacted his policy and ideas, as he tweeted up a storm, as he sacked and hired, and hired and sacked, the assumption was this nightmare was at least to be ended come November 2020.

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Then came things like the economy. Now whether its stellar run was directly reflective of him, you can argue over all you want. But what history shows is good economies lead to good support for whoever is in power.

There has been North Korea, his stance on China (which appeals to his base), his isolationist view on trade generally, and once again appeals to his base.

He told off Nato for not doing their bit. He told off just about everyone for not doing their bit and leaving it all to America. He went to the United Nations and said it was America first, globalism was dead, and patriots were the future.

And all of that, like it or not, was classic Trump. And all this time his numbers, broadly speaking, haven't changed. A lot of people don't like him. Some do, and the ones that do, if they're sprinkled in the right places, may be enough to get him back for another four years.

But then came two critical mistakes from the Democrats, one which is under way, and the second has yet to materialise.

First, of course, is the impeachment. They can't impeach him. You need 66 votes in a 100-vote Senate. The Senate is controlled by the Republicans, so they cannot get 66 votes. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, can plead that it's about democracy or doing the right thing all she wants - but it won't work and it won't win her an election.

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren's polices are not attuned to the majority of American thinking.
Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren's polices are not attuned to the majority of American thinking.

The second, of course, is what looks like the increasing likelihood that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic presidential nominee. That's a mistake of the sort of magnitude that will be studied for decades.

Having promised never to repeat the Hillary Clinton thing, they look like they'll repeat the Hillary Clinton thing. Warren isn't remotely electable. Her polices are not attuned to the majority of American thinking.

Americans don't trust government and she wants massive government. Americans are self-starters and she wants to tax them out of existence.

She appeals to a small collective of the left woke. She may, in tiny numbers, appeal to the "anyone but Trump crowd," but what she isn't is a pathway to a Democratic Presidency.

Say anything you want about Trump. Hate him all you like, ridicule him, insult him, obsess about him, but as we sit here, if the Democrat answer is Warren, I'll take any bet you want that says Trump is a two-term President.