Being the tragic I am, I know I will be one of the few people in New Zealand up late tomorrow night watching the Australian election.

There isn't a poll that says Labor won't win. In recent by-elections, as a result of the most extraordinary eligibility mess, the coalition has been pasted. In Wentworth, the bluest of blue seats, the Liberals lost. Yes, it had specific issues, like the fact it was Malcolm Turnbull's seat, and a lot of people think he was treated badly. And yes, you can argue by-elections don't go well for the incumbents.

But all roads lead to a change of government. Which is a shame because, despite the fact the Liberals are a mess, and Barnaby Joyce from the Nats hasn't helped a lot, the Australian economy, and the country as a whole, on balance is in pretty good shape.


But what you will see tomorrow night, if the predictions are accurate, is your classic example of not the opposition winning, but the government losing. They have simply run out of time. Minds have been made up, and the end is only a matter of people turning up and confirming it in the ballot box.

It's also a shame because as bad as I felt for Turnbull, Scott Morrison has actually turned out to be a pretty good leader. He's much better and more connected than Turnbull, whose vanishing act to New York shows what a bitter, tragic, little man he is.

Not to mention Tony Abbott, who also got horrifically shafted but instead of being the bigger person, became a wrecker - and in no small way has helped with the demise of his party as well.

The other shame about tomorrow is Bill Shorten isn't actually liked by many. He's no Jacinda Ardern, but they have the same sort of policies. Which is yet another shame of this whole campaign - his promises are outlandish.

If you think Kiwibuild and "next year's on me" were farcical, hold my beer. Bill Shorten has rewritten the record book of promises. He was handing out cash promises two weeks ago at $260 million a day. There isn't a cause, group, minority, idea, or place that hasn't been splashed with Shorten cash.

No, the coalition aren't a lot better. But Labor are tax and spenders in the oldest of old-fashioned ways, despite the fact they're not even running as surplus. So it will hurt Australia, and they just don't want to think about it long enough to work it out.

Which is sadly how democracy works these days. It's a mood, not a thought process. The tide is out on the coalition, it's in on Labor. But in a year, we will start to hear the whinging about deficits and broken promises, not unlike we are hearing this side of the Tasman.

I hope Morrison stays. If merit is a credential, he's shown plenty. But for this to turn out any other way we would have to have seen some numbers, some polling, that suggests the coalition stands a chance. But we haven't, so for them it's over.