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Opinion
Home / New Zealand

New Zealanders’ health is getting worse and it’s costing us billions each year - Sarah Dalton

Opinion by
Sarah Dalton
NZ Herald·
9 Oct, 2025 05:00 PM4 mins to read
Sarah Dalton is executive director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, a union which represents 6300 senior doctors and dentists.

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NZ’s life expectancy has stalled for the first time in 60 years, signalling a major health decline. Photo / 123RF

NZ’s life expectancy has stalled for the first time in 60 years, signalling a major health decline. Photo / 123RF

THE FACTS

  • Statistics New Zealand reports life expectancy has stalled for the first time in 60 years.
  • Health declines since 2011 are costing between $2.6 billion and $8.6 billion annually.
  • The working-age population is becoming smaller and sicker, impacting productivity and the economy.

Our health is going backwards. This year, Statistics New Zealand reports overall life expectancy in New Zealand has stalled for the first time in 60 years.

Our analysis of New Zealand Health Survey data shows since 2011, the proportion of adults in excellent health has decreased by 43% while the proportion in fair health increased by 42%.

Health has a value to all of us that can never be captured by narrow economic measures like GDP. It impacts our relationships with friends and family, our ability to do the things we love, our ability to live a fulfilling, connected life, where we are thriving, rather than surviving.

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But we cannot uncouple health from the economy either, because the economy is created by us, people. And declining health costs us financially too.

It costs us financially when we rack up GP, dentistry, or private healthcare bills or pay insurance premiums. It costs us financially when we reduce how many hours we work or lose our jobs because of ill health, or the ill health of a loved one. It costs businesses in sick leave and lost productivity. It costs the health system as demand for health care increases.

Using Treasury’s cost-benefit analysis tool, the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) estimates health declines since 2011 are costing New Zealand between $2.6 billion and $8.6b a year.

In September, the Treasury released its Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position of the Government. It shows that the size of our working-age population relative to Kiwis aged 65 and over is shrinking and set to decline further. Our tax-base to pay for the public services that support health is shrinking.

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On top of this, ASMS’ analysis of Health Survey data reveals we are facing a significant additional challenge. The steepest declines in health since 2011 have been in our working-age population. The proportion of adults aged 15-65 years in excellent health has declined by 45% while the proportion in fair health increased by 54%.

Association of Salaried Medical Specialists executive director Sarah Dalton. Photo / Supplied
Association of Salaried Medical Specialists executive director Sarah Dalton. Photo / Supplied

We are facing a future where the working-aged population is not just relatively smaller, but also relatively sicker. The current Government claims we can’t afford to spend more on public services like health, education, housing. The Prime Minister is concerned about New Zealand’s poor productivity.

The Minister of Finance conflates GDP growth with wellbeing. The Government wants us to buy into the idea that we can’t afford to be healthy. We need to wait for a mythical future when the books are in order. Such thinking is upside down.

The success of a country should be measured in the health of its people, not just the state of its balance sheet. And whether the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance want to admit it or not, our declining health impacts our economy and productivity.

Our declining health is a challenge that government officials and political parties of all stripes must turn their attention to. Without changes, we are headed towards a future where three times as many people could be in fair health than in excellent health.

Governments must turn this around by investing in the underlying determinants of health – housing, education and welfare.

The health workforce has been carrying an increasing workload as demand for health services outstrips growth in staffing numbers and the resources required to provide health services. When governments say they can’t afford to spend more on health, they are saying that our lives are expendable and at the mercy of fiscal targets.

In September, Health New Zealand released its Serious Adverse Event Report for Wellington and Hutt Valley, documenting the harm that patients have come to in the health care system. For the first time ever, it records instances of permanent or severe harm, major loss of function, or death, as a result of staffing and resource shortages.

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We cannot accept that our friends and family are expendable in the pursuit of the Government’s fiscal goals or balanced books. Our health system needs urgent investment so that we can attract and retain enough people to work in it to meet the health needs of New Zealanders that are currently going unmet. The point of our economy must be to serve the health of New Zealanders, not sacrifice it.

Catch up on the debates that dominated the week by signing up to our Opinion newsletter – a weekly round-up of our best commentary.

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