Mike Hosking.
If a week is a long time in politics then Peter Dunne will be grateful for the remaining five and a half weeks of this campaign.
According to the Q+A poll this past weekend he's in real trouble in his electorate of Ohariu.
Why would he be in trouble?
The answer in part is what is making this particular election campaign so interesting.
This whole thing for the past 2 weeks has been tipped on its head.
Almost certainly Labour and their man Greg O'Connor will have got a shot in the arm over the leadership spill, not to mention the Green implosion.
The real question is whether the bump sticks or fades.
Has the leadership change ignited something permanent or do we love a bit of drama and in a week we'll have moved on?
What we do know about the Peter Dunnes of this world is that their fate is at least in part determined by the curse of MMP.
No party that has been in government as a minor player has prospered.
From Jim Anderton and the Alliance, to David Seymour and ACT.
Anyone who sits in Government under the shadow of the major player never ends up growing or prospering, they end up fighting for their very survival.
Under this Government the Maori Party has shrunk, Act has gone nowhere, United is hanging on by a thread.
All of which is very bad news of course for National.
If I were the Greens I would be sweating the prospect of government, you can mount a very good argument that they've been able to remain relevant because they've never had the curse of government.
In opposition you are never really held to account given you don't actually do anything.
Suddenly in government the ideas become real and there are outcomes.
Or if you're a minor coalition partner most of your policies never see the light of day and the ones that do barely get any light at all.
I am assuming both Act and the Maori Party would argue their individual achievements whether they be charter schools or specific boosts to Maori programmes are things they are proud of, and have worked and yet there is no tangible pay off for them.
Peter Dunne in the early days got the Families Commission up. Whether he ever argued that was a hit I don't know, but it's gone now and I would suggest you'd be looking extremely hard to find anyone anywhere who could name you a single specific thing he's done to enhance his brand.
Which is not to bum him out, because I like him, he's been a solid reliable partner for National. He once upon a time could have been the same for Labour and under MMP these sort of middle of the road parties should be prospering, but sadly they're not.
Not to mention by most reports he's a very solid, well supported local MP hence the surprise at the poll.
The same argument applies to TOP.
Gareth Morgan claims he will get 10 per cent on the night, he's dreaming of course and should never have said such a thing, history shows no one has done it, and no one has even come close.
But it's not like he hasn't thought about what he's delivering by way of policy, it's not like he doesn't have some name recognition and it's not like he hasn't been able to get some headlines.
Polls though, show he's 2 per cent at best, and 5 weeks is no time to find 3 per cent, far less 8.
But would he be a welcome addition?
He would be a new voice.
Wouldn't someone wanting to auction off his support be a good example of what MMP is all about?
In the market place of ideas, it's an indictment on the system the market has turned out so small.
New Zealand First, the Greens, United, Mana, Act, TOP, the Maori Party.
Of the seven, two aren't even in Parliament.
Of the five who are, four should be back, one is on a knife edge.
And with the exception of one, it's unlikely any of them will actually grow their vote.
Hardly a prosperous representational system.