Maori, Pacific, Asian populations on the rise

Due to higher growth rates, Maori, Pacific and Asian populations will increase their overall share of the total population by 2038. Photo / iStock

New Zealand's Maori, Pacific and Asian populations are on the rise, new projections from Statistics New Zealand reveal.

Due to higher growth rates, these populations will increase their overall share of the total population by 2038. The proportion of people identifying as Maori was projected to grow 16 per cent in 2013 to nearly 20 per cent in 2036. Those who identified with an Asian ethniticity were projected to grow from 12 per cent of the population in 2013 to 21 per cent in 2038. And people who identified with a Pacific ethnicity were projected grow from 8 per cent in 2013 to 11 percent in 2038.

The number of European-identified people is also forecast to grow - albeit at a relatively slower rate. This population is forecast to drop from 75 per cent in 2013 to 70 per cent in the mid-2020s, and down to 66 per cent in 2038.

About one per cent of the population identified with Middle Easter, Latin American or African ethnicities in 2013, with an estimated resident population of 53,000.

Higher growth in the Maori and Pacific populations can be attributed to higher birth rates. In 2013, their total fertility rates were 2.5 and 2.7 births per woman, respectively. This contrasts with the rates for the 'European or Other' and Asian ethnicities that were 1.9 and 1.7 births per woman, respectively.

However, these populations often overlap, which influences population growth rate. "There is considerable overlap of these ethnic populations," population statistics manager Vina Cullum said. "People can and do identify with multiple ethnicities, especially people aged under 30 years."

In about one-quarter of births where a child was identified as Maori, the mother was non-Maori and the father was Maori. A similar rate was found in the Pacific population, where in one-quarter of births where a child was identified as Pacific, the mother was non-Pacific and the father was Pacific.

Another important factor was the much younger age structure of the Maori, Asian and Pacific populations and relatively high proportions of people at childbearing ages.

This provided greater momentum for future population growth. In contrast, 'European or Other' has a lower projected population growth rate due to a combination of lower fertility rates and an older age structure. This results in fewer births and more deaths.Growth in the Asian population would largely be driven by increased net migration.

Statistics New Zealand projected a net inflow of about 360,000 migrants over the 25-year period. Natural increase through births would account for about 250,000 or two-fifths of the projected Asian population growth. These projections reflect a combination of different patterns of fertility, migration, age structure, and ethnic identification. They are released by Statistics New Zealand every two to three years to maintain relevance and usefulness. They are not predictions, rather an indication of overall trends.

"Ethnic projections are of more than just academic interest," Vina Cullum said.

"They inform New Zealanders about our changing demographic picture. They help ethnic communities understand their own changing populations. And they assist planning in areas such as education and health where different ethnic populations can have different needs."