Government rejects all of Climate Change Commission’s emissions target recommendations

The Government rejected all the Climate Change Commission's recommendations to strengthen emissions targets, citing economic costs. Pictured is Simon Watts, the Minister of Climate Change. Photo / Mark Mitchell

By Kate Newton of RNZ

The Government has rejected all of the Climate Change Commission’s recommendations to strengthen New Zealand’s emissions targets.

The move comes despite the commission warning the effects of climate change are hitting New Zealand sooner and more severely than expected, and that New Zealand can and should be doing more.

The Government had already indicated it would reject recommendations to strengthen the 2050 targets for methane and carbon emissions.

Earlier this year, it announced it would amend the law to set a weakened methane target, down from a 24-47% reduction by 2050 to a 14-24% reduction instead.

It indicated it had also rejected the commission’s advice to strengthen the target for carbon dioxide and other long-lived gases from a 2050 net zero target to a 2050 net-negative target.

Thursday’s formal response confirmed both decisions and rejected a recommendation to include international shipping and aviation emissions in New Zealand’s targets.

It also dismissed the commission’s advice to keep lowering emissions after 2050.

The Government acknowledged strengthened targets would help with efforts to limit global warming.

There also would have been co-benefits from a stronger target, including greater energy security and improved health outcomes, the response said. However, its analysis showed that would come at an economic cost to New Zealand.

The Climate Change Commission warned of severe climate impacts and urged faster emissions reductions to prevent future costs. Photo / Getty Images

“Modelling indicates that GDP would be 0.4% lower than the status quo in 2035 and 2.2% lower in 2050.”

In its advice to the Government in November last year, the commission said since the 2050 targets were first set, the global outlook had worsened.

“The impacts of global warming are greater in both severity and scale than was understood in 2019. Research has found that greater impacts are being felt at lower temperature levels than previously expected.”

The country could and should do more, the commission advised.

“Significant changes since 2019 all point to Aotearoa New Zealand moving further and faster to reduce emissions than the current 2050 target provides for.”

Doing so “would reduce the risk of a harsher and costlier future transition” that would push the costs of both climate change and the transition on to future generations.

“Not only are they likely to face more severe climate impacts, it is likely they will also have to do more to reduce emissions.”

The commission said that although there were upfront costs from faster decarbonisation, its recommended targets were “compatible with ongoing economic growth”. Many of the changes would deliver cost savings over time.

The Government’s response rejected that, saying shifting to stronger targets “would entail economic costs and is substantially less feasible than alternative pathways”.

“Implementing the commission’s recommended target would also require major policy reform and private sector action.”

The Government said it took into account concern from rural communities about land-use change and food production loss if it strengthened the methane target.

“We considered the views of industry to ensure a practical target was developed that protects food production while also reducing emissions.”

That was despite the commission pointing out the lower end of a strengthened target could already be achieved with implementation of existing technologies and farm management systems.

The commission said international shipping and aviation represented 9% of New Zealand’s emissions and that should be included in targets.

Most submitters on its consultation around the targets supported doing so, it said.

However, the Government said that was “likely to involve higher economic costs than the status quo”.

Emissions from international shipping and aviation would continue to be addressed through global co-operation mechanisms instead, it said.

In rejecting the advice to continue decreasing emissions after 2050, the Government said: “It is our view that a detailed framework for post-2050 reductions and removals is best developed closer to 2050.”

– RNZ