The way we farm must change to cater for predicted rapid population growth, says Professor Danny Donaghy.
If the world's population is set to reach 8 billion by 2030, feeding everyone will require new approaches and agricultural systems. With its limited size, New Zealand is never going to feed the world through food production alone - but it can become a leader in the export of knowledgeand technology, as well as profitably producing high quality protein for an increasingly demanding Asian market.
Achieving this in a sustainable way is the key issue facing farmers. More intensive agricultural practices always have an impact, whether it's additional nutrient run-off or added pressure on water resources, so how best to balance environmental concerns with the increased agricultural production needed to drive New Zealand's economy will be a source of debate for generations to come.
There are a number of trends currently pushing farmers to change their land management practices. At the forefront is climate change, which has already had a major impact. Last summer's drought really highlighted the extent to which New Zealand relies on its natural resources for economic prosperity.
Extreme weather events are no longer once-in-a-lifetime experiences; they are the new normal, and we need to build agricultural systems to reflect that. Surviving, let alone prospering, in this volatile environment will take systems that have harnessed technology, science and know-how.
The other key factor is public opinion. Kiwis love their outdoor activities, and quite rightly demand clean waterways and unpolluted countryside. As do our tourists.
'Green' consumers, who seek information on the water, carbon and nutrient footprint of each product they buy at the supermarket, are also on the rise. At the same time, national and local governments are regulating to ensure environmental best practice is adopted and the success of agriculture does not come at the expense of the environment.
Farmers occasionally grumble about new regulations and additional costs, but they acknowledge the importance of adopting sustainable systems for their own long-term viability. What's needed is a change in mind-set: we don't need to intensively farm every square metre of land. As productivity gains are achieved through on-farm innovation and research, the less productive or sensitive areas of a farm or catchment can be 'retired' from production.
Rather than trying to convert all land to the most profitable farming system of the day, industry leaders need to use technology such as geographic information systems, overlaid with data on water quality and soil type to position farms for the future. In this way farmers will get more out of their productive land, while other areas can be returned to native species.
This approach will need the support of government, regulators and industry. It requires incentives for farmers and an understanding from consumers that they are paying for a premium product produced under best practice conditions. This will require more of a collaborative partnership model between consumers and farmers than currently exists.
Technology is also helping farmers and growers increase production, monitor stock and crops, manage inputs and outputs and communicate with each other. Today's milking sheds are already using electronic identification tags to track the milk yield of individual cows.
The pulsation of a milking cluster can be adjusted to a cow's preferred milking style, while at the same time the cow is fed a supplement (for example grain) based on individual production and liveweight targets. Sensors - attached to cows' necks and legs - are being used to predict when a cow comes into heat based on the pattern of its activity.
What's needed is a change in mindset: we don't need to intensively farm every square metre of land.
The dual demand for more food and higher quality food could lead to a divergence in farm systems. There is no doubt that many farms will increase in size - but with greater efficiency and a smaller footprint - to meet the demand for bulk products.
But there is also a move to smaller, niche farm systems with a focus on quality, unique, artisan products. Agricultural industries are working with universities and other research providers to develop functional foods that help maintain health and prevent disease.
In 2030 New Zealand, the area dedicated to agricultural production may not be much larger than it is today. Good management and technological developments should mean greater production yields from land put to appropriate use. Some areas will see a change in agricultural use - for example between pastoral industries, or from pastoral to horticulture; others will be retired from farming and returned to native bush under covenant agreements.
Meanwhile, agriculture is unlikely to encroach on the wilderness areas that draw tourists from around the world, simply because that land isn't viable for farming. In fact, New Zealand has little unused land suitable for additional agricultural activity. The biggest changes in land usage in the future will actually be caused by something else - increasing urbanisation due to our growing population.
Danny Donaghy is the Dairy NZ Professor of Dairy Production Systems with Massey University's Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences.
