The Government yesterday unveiled its long-awaited National Adaptation Plan to help prepare the country for the worsening impacts of climate change. What's in it? What's not? Science reporter Jamie Morton explains.
Just as we needed a solid plan to help tackle climate change, we also needed one to adapt to impacts that should now be blindingly clear to all of us.
With Europe sweltering through unprecedented heatwaves, New Zealand's insurers recently put the cost of extreme weather claims over the past 12 months at $200 million.
Last year was New Zealand's warmest – and last month our wettest.
That trend will only worsen over coming decades, as scientists warn of climbing wildfire danger, more intense storms and seas that could rise by more than a metre around vast swathes of our coastline – including some of our biggest cities.
Some 675,000 Kiwis already live in flood-prone areas, where the cost of losing properties and assets would amount to more than $100 billion.
As Climate Change Minister James Shaw put it: "More lives and livelihoods are on the line."
Shaw described the 200-page plan as a "first step" to addressing some of the immense questions we face in adapting to a wilder, warmer world – with the intention of driving a long-term shift policy shift.
"Climate change will be felt by us all, but how vulnerable we are and the limits to how well we adapt vary across groups and sectors in society."
The plan is packed with more than 120 actions - all to be carried out over the next six years – which reflect the 43 "priority risks" earlier flagged in a 2020 national stock-take.
This included work already well under way, such as an ongoing overhaul that will see the Resource Management Act (RMA) replaced with three new ones, including an adaptation-focused act that will address the vexed issue of managed retreat.
Other planned steps – such as exploring new infrastructure codes and "co-investment" for flood resilience – would complement that linchpin legislation.
By the end of this year, the Government also expected to receive advice on flood insurance options, which would give more clarity on how costs would be shared.
And next year, law changes would require companies to disclose climate-related risks and councils to include more hazard information in property LIM reports, and enable vulnerable assets to be moved from high-risk areas.
But such was the plan's focus on the need to embed adaptation right across the policy landscape that it touched on everything from fisheries management and our freight system, to freshwater programmes and health.
Alongside its five stated "outcome areas" - the natural environment; communities; infrastructure; homes, buildings and places; and the economy and financial system – the plan gave ample consideration to Māori-led climate strategies, to be supported by a new national platform.
Away from Government, the plan spelt out a raft of new requirements for councils, which would soon have to give regard to it when making or changing local policy.
Importantly, that'd mean councils would have to screen for hazards and risks in coastal areas, use the most recent down-scaled climate projections - and factor in high-risk scenarios.
The biggest unanswered question, of course, was who'd be paying the billions of dollars that large-scale adaptation will surely require.
The Government has made it repeatedly clear taxpayers alone wouldn't be footing the bill - which would also fall across councils, insurers, banks and asset and property owners – but also that costs couldn't be left to fall inequitably across society.
Councils lobby Local Government New Zealand has similarly been pushing for a "partnership approach" to share costs, which president Stuart Crosby said would be "far too big" for any one player to carry.
In lieu of the new legislation, the plan also left much uncertainty about how managed retreat should actually happen.
Crosby was pleased the Government had acknowledged other options – such as nature-based solutions – be prioritised before relocating communities.
"We are, however, none the wiser on what levers and tools central government's planning to use in the short to medium term to protect residents living in high-risk areas," he said.
"We need immediate measures because waiting for broader system reform to bed in, which could take up to 10 years, is just not an option.
Aotearoa New Zealand’s first National Adaptation Plan will ensure communities have the information and support they need to start preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change.
— James Shaw (@jamespeshaw) August 3, 2022
"Councils know what levers and tools are needed now, so central government must work with us."
Crosby said the experience of Matata in the Bay of Plenty – where a protracted fight by a small number of seaside homeowners finally ended in a $15m buy-out – highlighted the challenges councils faced.
He acknowledged that, even today, development was occurring in risky places around the country where it shouldn't be.
While there were provisions in the current RMA that councils could use to stop this, Crosby said such measures could be challenged in the Environment Court – which further emphasised the urgent need for a regulatory back-stop the new act would offer.
Insurance Council chief executive Tim Grafton similarly pointed out a lack of detail about managed retreat in the plan.
"The complexities of private property rights, compensation arrangements, allocating land for people to go to, getting community buy-in ... there's a lot of really tricky, nitty-gritty stuff that lies beneath the surface," he said.
"It's good the intention is there – but how do we get this implemented in a time-effective way so we can reduce the risks of climate change?"
Grafton said that, while insurers didn't need to wait on Government policy to make their own moves – such as introducing new flood-risk ratings – they could perhaps be more open about sharing data.
In any case, the Government was working to improve its own data collation and aimed to have new national projections available by January.
Climate change experts have welcomed the plan, which many called a long-overdue first move.
"The easy job has been completed – drafting a plan," Massey University's Professor Bruce Glavovic said.
"The hard work can now begin – implementing the plan."
Like Crosby, several questioned whether that would be done with the urgency required.
Canterbury University's Professor Bronwyn Hayward felt its core principles should at least be reviewed more regularly than every six years.
"Chaotic climate impacts will not wait for parliamentary election cycles."
At the same time, however, they said it would be crucial to get adaptation right.
"Drawing attention to potential winners and losers – who might disproportionately bear the costs or impacts of adverse events – and providing support to the most vulnerable, will be necessary to ensure fair, and equitable climate-adapted futures," Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research senior scientist Dr Nick Craddock-Henry said.
"As we clean up following recent flooding, and face another potentially record-breaking year of extremes, this plan is a reminder that we still have a long way to go.
"Adaptation to climate change is one of the most complex societal and environmental challenges we face, but with this plan we are at least moving in the right direction."
A 6-year-old is believed to be one of the two people who died in capsize off Pātea coast.