NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Covid 19 Omicron: Explained - the two big variables that could slow or grow this wave

Jamie Morton
By Jamie Morton
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
10 Dec, 2022 10:24 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

A Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s management of Covid-19 will take place. Video / Mark Mitchell

Modellers still expect this Omicron wave to peak within coming weeks – but there are two big variables that could slow or grow it ahead of Christmas.

That’s a potential “circuit-breaking” effect of schools and workplaces emptying out ahead of the break, but also an acceleration in cases driven by super-spreading from more social gatherings.

It’s prompted another plea from public health experts for Kiwis not to bring home the coronavirus for Christmas, amid the ongoing risks and unknowns of reinfections.

On Tuesday, daily reported cases topped 7000 for the first time since July – and by the end of the week the seven-day rolling average was sitting at more than 5100.

While the wave’s growth is now tracking toward the lower end of initially modelled estimates, experts are looking to late December as its peak.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

If a current doubling time of about four weeks holds steady or slows, it is possible the wave might top out before then – but this isn’t yet clear.

“Whilst the size of this variant-driven wave in terms of infections and cases is uncertain, we do know that it will produce a wave of hospitalisations and deaths as well,” modeller Dr Emily Harvey said.

As at Friday, more than 430 people were in hospital with the virus, including 14 in ICU.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The surge is mainly being powered by waning immunity coupled with a stew of immunity-evading Omicron subvariants, including BA.2.75 lineages, now accounting for about a quarter of sequenced cases, the similarly rising BQ.1.1, and hybrid strains XBB and XBC.

Reinfections are also making up an increasing proportion of new infections – and some 27 per cent of the cases we know about.

Dr Dion O’Neale, of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, estimates New Zealand’s background prevalence rate at somewhere around 3 per cent – meaning that, on average, gatherings of more than 30 people could likely have at least one infected person.

“Case numbers are definitely going up at the moment, and if we all have a lot of indoor parties, we might actually end up driving them quite high before Christmas.”

Given human behaviour was a notoriously difficult thing to model – especially without an infection prevalence survey in place – O’Neale said it wasn’t clear how large an impact function season would have on this wave.

But it was likely to be significant.

“If you’ve got case numbers doubling at some length of time, and you’re starting from a higher value, doubling them means a whole lot more cases.”

The breaking of school terms, however, could help take the pressure off.

“We’ve seen this effect really clearly by looking at Flu Tracking data for incidence of Covid-like symptoms, which sharply drops in the middle of winter when school holidays start,” he said.

“Over the Christmas holiday break, we’d expect to see the same thing happen.”

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

O’Neale said Kiwis could do their bit toward lowering the wave by wearing masks when in crowded indoor environments, and staying home and getting tested if they had symptoms themselves.

“If you’ve been invited to a Christmas function that’s indoors, and it’s one you don’t really care about going to, it might be a good idea to skip it.”

University of Auckland aerosol chemist Dr Joel Rindelaub encouraged those organising gatherings this month to limit the number of venues, and pick well-ventilated ones.

“If you want to stay healthy over Christmas and see all your whānau, I think it’s also a good idea to wear a mask whenever you’re in crowded places like bars or restaurants.”

Otago University epidemiologist Dr Amanda Kvalsvig said that, in the face of “very clear evidence of risk”, it was frustrating that New Zealand appeared to be under-using well-established, cost-effective protections like masks and rapid antigen tests at large events.

“The research literature continues to show substantial and growing evidence about the health risks from ongoing waves of Covid-19 infection, with further impacts in turn on the safe functioning of health, education, and other systems,” she said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

“So, the big question is why the New Zealand public isn’t being advised every day that it’s in their best interests to avoid getting infected and reinfected.”

Experts have also called for better access to antiviral medications, which one under-review study indicated could help reduce symptoms of Long Covid.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

Atmospheric river to swamp parts of northern NZ, flood-hit South Island braces for fresh deluge

01 Jul 07:43 AM
New Zealand

'Knew he was gone': Truck driver describes cyclist he'd hit lying on ground

01 Jul 07:00 AM
New Zealand

MetService concedes Cyclone Gabrielle red weather warning could've come sooner

01 Jul 06:21 AM

There’s more to Hawai‘i than beaches and buffets – here’s how to see it differently

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

Atmospheric river to swamp parts of northern NZ, flood-hit South Island braces for fresh deluge

Atmospheric river to swamp parts of northern NZ, flood-hit South Island braces for fresh deluge

01 Jul 07:43 AM

"It's not the news we wanted," say Nelson emergency workers.

'Knew he was gone': Truck driver describes cyclist he'd hit lying on ground

'Knew he was gone': Truck driver describes cyclist he'd hit lying on ground

01 Jul 07:00 AM
MetService concedes Cyclone Gabrielle red weather warning could've come sooner

MetService concedes Cyclone Gabrielle red weather warning could've come sooner

01 Jul 06:21 AM
'Quite a mess': Man who rammed cop car in stolen vehicle given jail and a $10k bill

'Quite a mess': Man who rammed cop car in stolen vehicle given jail and a $10k bill

01 Jul 06:00 AM
From early mornings to easy living
sponsored

From early mornings to easy living

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP