Election 2023 - The Premium Debate: Shayne Currie, Simon Wilson, Heather du Plessis-Allan and Barry Soper pick their winners and losers

Six months out from Election 2023, a new Herald “poll of polls” points to a white-knuckle race.

The poll summary, released on Friday, found Labour and National’s chances of forming a Government with their most obvious coalition partners (the Greens for Labour, Act for National) were slim - at 11.4 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively.

The potential kingmaker in 2023? Te Pāti Māori.

Strategists on all sides are acutely aware of the numbers, says Herald political editor Claire Trevett. They also agree on two things: “First, that it is shaping to be a very close election and nothing like the red wash that delivered Labour a majority Government in 2020. Even small shifts in the vote could make a world of difference.

“The second is that it will very much be a cost-of-living election.”

Both major parties, Trevett says, are targeting the same group of voters - the 500,000 to 1 million Kiwis whose minds are not yet made up and could go either way on the day.

Who’s best placed to win over those critical swing voters? We asked Herald editor-at-large Shayne Currie, senior writer Simon Wilson, and Newstalk ZB’s Heather du Plessis-Allan and Barry Soper to tell us - and each other - what they think during an online debate this morning.

• Thanks for your questions - submissions are now closed. Stay tuned for more Premium live debates.