OPINION
This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.
Welcome to the Politics Briefing. Labour has received the best news it is likely to get in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, in the middle of the election campaign: New Zealand is not only out of recession, it was never in it. According to the latest GDP statistics, economic growth was 0.9 per cent in the last quarter, outperforming predictions and allowing Grant Robertson to suggest the economy had turned a corner.
National’s Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have been devastating in their attacks on Labour over the recession status, and over the government debt - that kept people in jobs during the Covid response and kept unemployment low, 3.6 per cent. People still feel like there is a recession, Willis said, and this morning National released what it calls a 100-point plan to rebuild the economy.
Robertson called the new growth figures “a victory for the economy”. But it may be only a technical victory because, with voting beginning soon, there isn’t much time left to close the gap. And it is not all good news, with some economists suggesting the Reserve Bank may have to consider another lift in the OCR this year - though more likely November rather than the next OCR on October 4 - two days after voting starts. See Liam Dann’s comment piece.
Act leader David Seymour released his revised fiscal plan after the Pre-election fiscal update (Prefu) showed the accounts had deteriorated badly since May. His fiscal plan had previously set out a plan with only two rates of income tax. That has been revised to three rates. He has also added $1 billion revenue in cigarette tax over four years by reversing the Very Low Nicotine Content Rules which slash the amount of nicotine in cigarettes. There was no mention of the policy or the revenue in the previous plan.
At least Seymour released a plan and then revised it. We are still waiting for National and Labour to release theirs, 10 days out from the start of voting.
There was a personal fillip for Prime Minister Chris Hipkins as well yesterday. He was rated the most trusted political leader in the 1 News-Verian poll, 28 per cent to Christopher Luxon’s 22 per cent, David Seymour 12 per cent, Winston Peters 10 per cent, James Shaw 4 per cent, Marama Davidson 3 per cent, Rawiri Waititi 2 per cent and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 1 per cent (18 per cent undecided).
Another poll puts Labour’s candidate in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, former Ngati Porou East Coast Rugby chief executive Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, eight points ahead of MP Meka Whaitiri, who defected from Labour to the Māori Party. But with a whopping 29 per cent undecided, it is still wide open. The poll was conducted by Curia for Whakaata Māori television.
Hipkins looked very chipper on the campaign in Hawke’s Bay where he promised a $1 billion hospital for the region and had a happy visit to the Wattie’s factory. Adam Pearse will be reporting on his visit today to Wairarapa with Kieran McAnulty.
Christopher Luxon was in the deep South with Invercargill MP Penny Simmonds and education spokeswoman Erica Stanford, trying to make it easier for international students to return to New Zealand. He is in Auckland today. I’ve included below the profile I did in August on Simmonds, who is tipped for a ministerial role in a National government.
New Zealand First leader Winston set the tone in last night’s pacy Newshub Nation’s Powerbroker’s debate. He was in a frivolous mood and it ended up being highly entertaining, if not particularly deep. At least the Greens’ Marama Davidson, Te Pati Māori’s Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Peters had fun. It was 45 minutes of amusing one-liners. David Seymour, however, remained deadly serious throughout. He stated, not for the first time, that he would work with Peters if the numbers required it.
“I’m beginning to pity Christopher Luxon in the days after the election” - Newshub Nation election debate co-host Rebecca Wright after hearing David Seymour and Winston Peters discuss whether they could work together.
The red seat of Mt Albert has only ever been held by Labour - including three MPs who became Labour leader: Helen Clark, David Shearer and Jacinda Ardern. Which National candidate who stood there and lost went on to lead the National Party? (See answer below).
Greg O’Connor, Labour MP for Ōhāriu, who told voters at a local candidates meeting that National rival Nicola Willis was likely to be the next Minister of Finance. The general rule in politics, Greg, is that you don’t concede until election night.
To TV1 senior reporter Benedict Collins, who found someone to welcome the prospect of fresh fruit and frozen vegetables losing 15 per cent GST - a couple of workers at the Wattie’s factory. Makes a change from an economist’s opinion.
Minor parties’ debate: The leaders of the “powerbroker” parties jumped straight into it, discussing “race-baiting”, “woke projects” and “ethno states” in a fiery start to the minor parties’ debate.
Act education plan: The Act Party wants to have education checks on 4- and 5-year-olds and a new ranking system for all schools, so parents can see which ones are high- and low-scoring.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti vote: Hawke’s Bay-based party-hopping decade-long MP Meka Whaitiri’s hopes of continuance in Parliament cling to a thread according to a poll undertaken for TV channel Whakaata Māori.
OPINION - debate verdict: Our experts deliver their verdicts on the first TV leaders’ debate.
Hipkins on the campaign trail: Standing in sheep s*** in the paddocks of Central Hawke’s Bay, Chris Hipkins capped off a day on the campaign trail where he showed some of that vintage Chippy character Labour is relying on to win this election.
Luxon on the campaign trail: Christopher Luxon was on cruise-control in Invercargill this week, launching a plan to make New Zealand more attractive for international students and turning his hand to making a cheese roll.
Analysis - prisons: Labour’s 30 per cent prison reduction goal made no sense it was announced, but axing it also makes no sense, writes Derek Cheng.
Labour promise: Labour has pledged up to $1.1 billion to build Hawke’s Bay a new hospital, should it be re-elected on October 14.
Tikanga and the courts: The Law Commission is proposing an expanded role for the Māori Land Court to become a specialist court dealing with broader matters involving Māori customs, values and practices, tikanga.
Quiz answer: Rob Muldoon in 1954 in his first run at Parliament.
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.
Emergency services were called to the scene about 8.30pm.