The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton political poll will have National Party leader Judith Collins trying to convince herself that bad news that isn't as bad as other bad news equates to good news.
It does not.
On its face, the poll last night appeared to deliver some vindication forCollins' claims that Sunday night's Newshub-Reid Research poll was a "rogue" poll.
That Reid Research poll put National on a miserly 25 per cent and Labour on a massive 61 per cent.
Collins had immediately reached for the "rogue" line, clearly concerned the first poll would convince voters National was a lost cause and look elsewhere.
The 1 News poll was taken a week later and had National on a more satisfying 32 per cent and Labour on a more modest 53 per cent.
Labour leader Jacinda Ardern in Parliament. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The 1 News poll aligns more closely with National's own internal polls.
But the bad news lies in the trends of both polls.
What is troubling for National is that its support slumped by similar margins in both polls compared to the previous rounds of polling - by five to six points. In both polls, Labour had gone up.
Quite simply, the gap between the two parties was still growing. Collins has just seven weeks to close it.
Both polls told a bad story for National: that its support was still dropping as the cumulative effect of the woes of its MPs and the turbo-charged merry-go-round of leaders continued to bite.
Collins attempts to re-set things with a splurge of policy announcements on new roads all around the country had no impact.
That indicates few voters expect National to be in a position to actually deliver them.
The tourniquet of Judith Collins has so far done little to stop National's support bleeding.
That is not only because of the foolish actions of MP Hamish Walker and the case of Andrew Falloon or the leadership changes.
National had staked a claim on the "experience" boast – but its senior MPs Nikki Kaye, Amy Adams and Nathan Guy were delivering valedictories yesterday even as the poll results landed.
They followed others out the door, a mass exodus of the ministers who had served under the John Key government.
Poll
Collins chose to try to put a brave face on it all, telling 1 News it showed she was the "train coming down the tracks".
At the moment, the 'train' is more at the hand-car end of rail vehicles than the bullet train end.
There are some bright spots for National in the 1 News poll.
The first was Collins' rating as preferred Prime Minister, coming in at a healthy 20 per cent.
She is the first National Party leader since Sir Bill English to break into the 20s in any poll.
It may be a hollow achievement, since her rival Labour leader Jacinda Ardern was miles ahead on 54 per cent.
But it did show the majority of National's base was now behind its leader.
The second bright spot was a double-edged one - and came in the sunny colour yellow.
The Act Party's result of five per cent indicates if National's bedrock is now bleeding, it is bleeding into Act rather than NZ First.
NZ First's attempts to sow fear about the prospect of a Labour–Green government had so far failed to take root.
