The National Government today takes the greatest risk of its tenure - a leadership change. This has happened many times in our political history and not with happy results. The previous National Government replaced Prime Minister Jim Bolger with Dame Jenny Shipley and was defeated at the next election. It had followed a Labour Government that changed its Prime Minister twice. David Lange stood down for Sir Geoffrey Palmer in 1989 and he gave way to Mike Moore the following year, six weeks before the election which it lost.
Going back a little further, the Kirk-Rowling Government did not survive the change forced upon it by Norman Kirk's death and, before it, National was defeated after Sir Keith Holyoake finally handed over to Sir John Marshall. Earlier still, Holyoake lost an election after taking over from an ailing Sydney Holland in mid-term. In all our post-war experience, it has never worked.
The record is not much better in comparable countries. The recent Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government in Australia is an egregious example. The present Australian Government's replacement of Tony Abbott with Malcolm Turnbull has not worked out as well as it hoped. In the United Kingdom, Margaret Thatcher's success transferred to John Major at an election but Labour's Gordon Brown could not continue Tony Blair's run and it remains to be seen whether Theresa May will be as successful as David Cameron.
If Bill English is contemplating this history as he prepares to be sworn-in this afternoon, he may take some comfort from the fact that none of New Zealand's previous Prime Ministers left office in the same circumstances as John Key. Bolger and Palmer were rolled by their caucus. Lange resigned because the caucus had re-elected Sir Roger Douglas to the Cabinet against his wish. Holyoake was hounded from office after staying on too long. In all cases their governments looked to be heading for defeat at the next election and the desperate changes of leader could not avert their fate.
The Key Government was most certainly not heading for defeat when its Prime Minister announced his retirement a week ago. Key is handing his successor a party still polling high in a third term of office, a growing economy with low unemployment and rising budget surpluses that offer possibilities for additional investment in productivity and infrastructure at the same time as more rapid debt reduction and income tax cuts for the lower paid.
