He is now stuck without an exit, after months in which the war pushed inflation around the globe to its highest level in decades, brought back the spectre of nuclear conflict, caused millions of Ukrainians to become refugees, and highlighted the importance of energy grids and other infrastructure in battle plans.
Most people think about politics through personal and local lenses, and that’s sometimes convenient for those who don’t want to acknowledge the reach of international events. But global geopolitical patterns can rumble like tectonic plates.
The world is going through a period of uncertainty that’s probably comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ‘war on terror’ for impact in the past 50 years.
This isn’t as clearly defined or labelled: This earthquake is more a swarm of interlinked crises that feed into each other, creating more tremors.
It’s a mix of the pandemic, the cost of living shake-up, the war in Ukraine, how the US and China compete, the status of Gulf states as fossil fuels are targeted, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the future fight for resources, and climate change.
The war raises questions about:
- Russia’s place in the geopolitical system, and how other countries react to that with their political, security, strategic and energy policies;
- what the war means for food production and migration in a warming world hit by environmental disasters;
- how the conflict is directly a setback for climate strategies with increased use of coal while also underlying the need for more renewable power.
And what would it mean for Moscow to lose its war and for Ukraine, the second-biggest country in Europe, to become part of the European Union and Nato?
Just in the area of security and defence, the war has caused Sweden and Finland to apply for membership of Nato and enhanced Poland’s standing as an important border nation for the alliance as countries send supplies to Ukraine. It has pushed nations to increase spending on defence, is draining weapons stocks, and creating a boom for arms manufacturers.
During the northern winter, the conflict is stuck in a loop where Russia responds to Ukrainian moves with strikes punishing civilians, which Kyiv points to as it gets more military and humanitarian aid from its backers.
Putin probably hoped for a weakened Biden Administration to emerge from the US Midterm elections in November. Instead there’s no sign of any drop in Western support for Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a triumphant trip to Washington last week, delivering an address to Congress and meeting President Joe Biden.
The US had just announced an extra US$1.8 billion in military aid, including Patriot defence missiles for the first time and bombs for fighter jets. A package of US$45b in emergency assistance was before Congress. It shores up US support before Congress comes under divided control in January.
The Ukrainians’ resilient and nimble approach to defending themselves on the battlefield has been matched by the ongoing efforts by Zelenskyy and his team to keep the conflict in the public eye, combating news cycle fatigue. That has included careful attempts to appeal to supportive countries individually.
For the US that meant praising “American resolve” to help Ukraine “guarantee the future of our common freedom”. When Zelenskyy spoke to the New Zealand Parliament he spoke some words in Maori and emphasised ways New Zealand could help Ukraine’s recovery.
Zelenskyy has been an impressive leader who stepped up, in a world where they are rare.
The question of what happens next in the war in the new year only sparks more possibilities of good or bad outcomes, but no certainties.
