In the 2021 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update delivered on December 15, he spoke of confidence and cautious optimism that inflation would be temporary. "While the Treasury is forecasting a decline in GDP in the September quarter, the outlook is positive with a forecast bounce back in the December quarter of 3.7 per cent.
"Inflation is forecast to peak in the March quarter next year then fall across the rest of 2022 towards the Reserve Bank's two per cent mid-point over the rest of the forecast period."
That confidence took a hard knock the very next day.
The Ministry of Health announced on December 16: "Whole-genome sequencing has detected New Zealand's first case of the Omicron variant in a recent international arrival who tested positive in a day 0/1 test at a Christchurch managed isolation facility.
"The case arrived in Auckland from Germany via Dubai on December 10 and flew to an MIQ in Christchurch on an aircraft chartered for international arrivals."
As we now know, Omicron was a whole new creature compared with Delta and would not be denied rapid access to our communities, vaccinated or not.
Added to the damage wrought by Omicron is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24 in a tragic escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which had been ongoing since 2014.
The invasion has led to Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II, with more than 5.8 million Ukrainians leaving the country and a quarter of the population displaced.
But also, with an already turbulent backdrop of global inflationary pressures amid rising food and energy prices and pandemic-disrupted supply chains, the war has heightened supply and demand tensions, damaged consumer sentiment, and now threatens global economic growth.
The IMF's global growth forecasts have been downgraded for the second time this year, with the global crisis lender projecting worldwide growth of 3.6 per cent in both 2022 and 2023, a drop of 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from its January forecast.
Next week's Budget will inevitably reflect the changed circumstances, including the vastly revised expectations around inflation.
Robertson has said the Climate Emergency Response will be funded with money gathered via the emissions trading scheme.
Few would be optimistic enough to believe the vast sums to go into the new Health NZ will do little more than keep the health system standing for now. At least $700 million will be soaked up immediately by district health board deficits.
This budget will be a whopper but any more hands out for added assistance may be left hanging on tired arms.
