Christchurch's good weather has changed the face of tomorrow's $57,500 FMG Grand National Steeplechase at Riccarton.
The confident prediction of a dead track is not what a few of the connections were hoping for.
One was Mark Oulaghan, part owner and trainer of last year's winner Counter Punch. Oulaghan was not atall surprised Counter Punch finished out of the money in last week's Koral Steeplechase, a race he won comfortably 12 months earlier.
He felt last week' race was a little sharp and was confident of a big showing in tomorrow's feature on a wetter track.
"If it had rained I'd be confident he could go close, but there might be one or two there that will be a bit quick for him the way the track is going to present itself."
The last time Counter Punch raced on a track as good as Riccarton tomorrow was when unplaced in a flat race as a lead-up to the Waikato Hurdles in May 2009 and before that when seventh in the 2007 Waikato Hurdles.
"The only thing in his favour is that this race is 1350m longer than the Koral and the others have to show they can run the distance when we know he can."
That might be very important.
Richard Eynon, who rode Tobouggie Nights to such an impressive win in the Koral, thinks the horse will get the extra distance but isn't positive.
"And I don't think the drier track is an issue, but once again we'll have to see."
John Wheeler holds a massive hand with Tobouggie Nights and Volkswagin, who ran home strongly from the back of the field to finish third in the Koral.
"Volkswagin is going to be the main danger," said Eynon, who admits he is in love with Tobouggie Nights.
Karlos is the danger to them all.
The Cambridge jumper had been kept away from steeplechasing since finishing second to Hypnotize in the Great Northern Steeplechase 11 months ago.
Last week's Koral Steeples was his first attempt over the bigger fences since then and his second to Tobouggie Nights, given he muffed one of the fences in the home straight, was superb.
Despite appearing to become unbalanced with his awkward jump, Karlos rallied strongly to come back at the winner in the closing stages.
The extra distance will not be a problem for Karlos, who is almost certainly fitter and harder.
Of the others, Ho Down appeals as much as any.
