Add to that the global economic downturn, that hit the horticulture industry, and a high Kiwi dollar, which slashed commodity prices in beef and wool, and the region's economic fortunes are in decline, leaving it at a crossroads.
Despite abundant natural and physical resources, and a healthy infrastructure, the province continues to experience stagnant growth, with unemployment exceeding the national average (8.6 per cent) and an ageing population.
Throughout the last decade, Napier and Hastings have experienced periods of slow population growth, while Central Hawke's Bay and Wairoa communities steadily dwindle.
Mid-Canterbury, meanwhile prospers, fostered by the foresight to innovate and irrigate its vast plains. School rolls are increasing as more people choose to settle in what was once considered a region with few opportunities.
Unemployment is below 1 per cent. Since 2001, its GDP has exceeded the national average annually, with Ashburton registering a GDP increase of 11 per cent.
Such a scenario in Hawke's Bay seems remote, but there is salvation in the shape of the proposed Ruataniwha dam, says Federated Farmers' Hawke's Bay president Will Foley.
"It would breathe life into the whole community with capital investment and the jobs it would create. The local rural community is in a 'depressed state' after a succession of droughts. If this continues we will see more business closures and population decline.''
Mr Foley recalled the frustration of knowing that tens of thousands of lambs prematurely left the drought-ravaged region for the South Island last year.
The outcome affected farm incomes and freezing workers lost jobs.
He believes a dam would prevent another calamity and act as insurance against future droughts.
The Ruataniwha dam is expected to cost around $270m with projected economic annual returns of $250m. It would have capacity to irrigate 25,000 hectares, generate 6.5 mega watts of electricity and supply 3000 houses with renewable energy.
Hawke's Bay Regional Council chairman Fenton Wilson described the dam proposal as a "positive'' process at a pivotal time. It had support of the business community, employment agencies and Ngai Tahu.
"The [83-metre high] dam will allow for large tracts of the plains to be irrigated. We have reached our water allocation of between 5000 and 6000 hectares. This will get us over 20,000 hectares at least.
"The flow-on effect is huge. At least 2000 jobs would be created, that would help Central Hawke's Bay and Hastings where there are distribution and processing plants,'' he said.
The transport sector would also benefit, with increased volumes as a direct result of more productive farming.
Consultancy McGredy Winder & Co describes the project as "the single biggest economic development opportunity currently available to the region''.
"[It would] increase [primary] production and capture value within the region.''
Despite recent criticism of the resource consent process, Mr Wilson said the proposal was carefully scrutinised by the regional council. It sets out a sensible option, derived from finding more viable and alternative ways to improve the Tukituki River catchment.
"The environment was certainly a driver as the water quality drops during the summer with low flows and dry spells. We also simply do not get enough rainfall at crucial times to ensure growth and this affects our horticulture industry,'' he said.
Critics of the proposed dam fear the environment will be affected, with native flora and fauna threatened due to nutrient oversupply.
There is also concern about the project's construction costs and debt to be incurred by the council, as well as the price of water for participating farmers, should the project be completed.
"We are conducting a robust process. Let us get through the board of inquiry first. There are some hard questions to be answered. We are aware of affordability issues and are doing everything conceivably possible to get this across the line,'' he said.
Hawke's Bay Regional Council, NIWA and the Cawthron Institute have worked closely together to develop modelling for the Tukituki River to establish safe nitrogen and phosphorous levels.
Research indicates that phosphorous from Central Hawke's Bay sewage ponds is the "major contributor'' to the river's deteriorating health, causing excessive algae and slime growth. It was anticipated that reduced levels would prevent pollution and safeguard existing ecology.
The regional council evaluated the process towards achieving safer phosphate levels as cost-effective, with timeframes reasonable to effect change without impacting on the local community.
As an additional safeguard, the regional council has "volunteered'' a nitrogen cap on production land within the Tukituki catchment, to address dam opponents' claims that toxicity levels would increase.
Dam planners also had a strategy to maintain river quality with smart management "flushing flows'' where fresh mountain water would be released to tumble rocks to eradicate algae and slime from riverbanks.
Mr Wilson rejected suggestions the location of the proposed dam was not properly investigated.
"We have actually drilled at 20 different sites before deciding on this one. The site certainly has its challenges, but I can tell you it is the most examined piece of land in the whole of Hawke's Bay.''
Dam opponents, including Forest & Bird and environmentalists, are concerned the dam will flood podocarp forest, endangering native species. They also expect a sudden explosion in dairy farming.
However, the board of inquiry was investigating flood risks and until all the information was in, there was no point in speculating on such scenarios, Mr Wilson said.
Moreover, a report by farm consultant Andy Macfarlane predicts dairy will account for around 38 per cent of farming with the remainder still arable, alongside meat and fibre.
"Given the cost of the water and its huge use of irrigation, I doubt dairying will expand over the plains. In fact, I suspect it will be reduced,'' farmer and former regional councillor Ewan McGregor remarked.
"Land holdings on the Ruataniwha Plains would be large. I suspect large-scale annual food crop will predominate if it is built,'' he said.
Mr Wilson agrees.
"The dairy farmers will have to pay for every cubic metre, like everyone else. They will have to compete with other land-users, such as cropping farmers who may have fewer costs.''
The threat earthquakes posed was also under consideration, with specialists drilling and examining rock structures using overseas data to be "as confident as they can be'', on how the dam can be built.
"Put it this way _ the quake risk can only sharpen the focus on this project. Nothing is insurmountable. It can be done,'' Mr Wilson said.
Mid-Canterbury's main town, Ashburton, has been described as the 'cooperative capital of New Zealand' with more than 40 companies, including Fonterra and Silver Fern Farms.
Ashburton district has reportedly the second-fastest-growing economy in New Zealand. Over the past seven years its population has reversed provincial trends by becoming increasingly younger, while growing at 13.4 per cent.
The region's resurgence has been linked to the insatiable drive towards dairy conversion, from traditional sheep and beef farming.
However, that's not the catalyst. The principal cause relates to farmers being able to produce higher value for their land, thanks to irrigation.
Ashburton Mayor Angus McKay said it was no secret that irrigation had transformed Mid-Canterbury's economy.
"The beauty is you do not have dry spells when you have irrigation. It gives certainty,'' said Mr McKay.
It was ideal for growing vegetables and, above all, guaranteed product to the end user. It's not surprising then that Ashburton district produces half the world's radish seeds and around a third of its carrot seeds.
Mr McKay said the district's growth was evident through the new businesses it had attracted, along with traditional primary industries.
"Irrigation sells whiteware and beds. Look, major retail chains have come to town. We had Mitre 10 now it is Mitre 10 megastore, such is the demand,'' he said.
Farmers were also reinvesting in the land. The addition of dairy and vegetable sheds to existing properties meant more houses were needed for workers and their families.
The whole district was vibrant and booming as a result of a thriving rural sector.
"All the money stays in the community. When farmers borrow to develop irrigation and horticulture, the money is reinvested in the town, as jobs are created in service delivery which means the new employee is first to benefit,'' said Mr McKay.
An often-propagated notion that greater irrigation inevitably leads to more intensive dairy farming is challenged by Federated Farmers' Mid-Canterbury President Chris Allen.
The sheep and beef farmer says while dairying has markedly increased on the Canterbury Plains, the conventional elements of the primary sector still prevail.
"Dairy farming won't come by itself. It will need other industries and services to support to it, like cropping farming. A lot has changed here in 20 years; there is a lot more diversity happening and the region just grows and grows.''
Support towns had benefited immensely, with new sport centres, swimming pools, museums and art centres. School rolls were up 30 per cent in some places.
Mr Allen said dairy conversion was not something Hawke's Bay should fear. It was already a slick and innovative operation.
"The sheds and ponds are essentially state-of-the-art investment. It also involves developing new infrastructure,'' he said.
If detractors still need convincing they should look at the Ophua Dam, just a short distance away in South Canterbury.
Irrigated farms there support twice as many jobs as the dryland equivalent, or 30 more jobs per thousand hectares irrigated. It irrigates and provides water to local towns, including Timaru, generating 7.7 megawatts of electricity bringing permanent water flows to the previously summer-dry Opihi River.
Around 50 per cent of the water released from the dam provides environmental supplementary flows within the Opihi River.
Ironically, the site is recognised by Birdlife International as it supports the breeding colonies of native endangered species.
The lake has also provided recreational opportunities and the fisheries are described as being in healthy condition, with local anglers comparing fish sizes to what they were decades ago.
Central Hawke's Bay communities, and tourists to the wider region, may too enjoy the recreational benefits a dam reservoir provides in the future. A decision on the proposal is due within the next six months and the first stage could be completed by 2017.
"There are people rightly nervous about this, but we are looking at all the risks. All we want to do is regenerate and revitalise our region and rural communities,'' said Mr Wilson.
"This is a very important and long-term venture. The initial high costs will diminish with the value of water. The economic implications will be considerable,'' Mr McGregor said.
Hawke's Bay farmer Will Foley remains positive and confident that the project will happen.
"If you look back through history, many other industries have progressed through mitigating their impact on the environment by adopting new technologies. We as a community can also improve and find solutions.''
