Claire Trevett: New poll might not trigger a National coup, but Judith Collins still at risk - and Labour has its own problems

OPINION:

Labour will be more concerned about what the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll means for its fortunes than for National Party leader Judith Collins, although a spill would provide an entertaining diversion.

It highlighted yet again how public opinion can turn on a dime in a pandemic.

The poll on Monday night saw Labour's polling drop a further two points since the last poll six weeks ago, down to 41 – and down from a high of 53 per cent almost a year ago.

More critically, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took a bigger hit than her party – slumping six points as preferred PM down to 39 per cent.

Brand Jacinda has been a massive part of Labour's success. If it starts to crumble, so will the castle.

From Government, Ardern has a much greater chance of hauling that support back than National did when its polling dropped from the mid 40s down into the 20s in 2020. She also has two years to do it.

Nonetheless, it does not pay to let these things stagnate for too long. Both Labour and National have found that once the public's hearts and minds are lost, it can be a hard job to win them back.

So this week will be critical for Ardern. She will be resting her hopes on Wednesday's announcement on when Auckland's lockdown will end – likely to be either the very end of November or start of December – and the boundaries reopen.

If that goes well and delivers the respite Ardern promised New Zealanders over summer she will start the New Year off in a stronger position.

Then there is National.

National's caucus will return on Tuesday morning to digest the third poll in two weeks that has seen Labour drop in support while National has only made tiny gains.

The only relief for them in last night's 1 News Colmar Brunton poll was that Act's rise and rise now seems to have plateaued – at least for now. And that may have bought Collins a reprieve.

The latest poll is not enough to trigger an immediate leadership spill - although that might not be the case if Act had kept rising, closer to National.

But Collins' personal ratings have only kept falling – her approval ratings are nearing rock bottom, and less than half of National voters believed she was doing a good job.

She is at 5 per cent as preferred PM - new MP Christopher Luxon is coming close to overtaking her.

Luxon is not her immediate threat – that is Simon Bridges, who only secured 1 per cent as preferred PM.

But the latest Taxpayers Union Curia poll is also being circulated around National.

Curia is National's traditional pollster – and it was Bridges' rock bottom favourability rankings in that poll that prompted MPs to roll him in 2020.

That poll now shows that over the last three months, Collins' favourability rankings have been much worse than Bridges' - and that Bridges had improved month by month.

But nor should leader Judith Collins rest easy. She told 1 News Simon Bridges was "not the leader, and won't be".

But that is no longer in her command. She also noted what was needed was for MPs to focus.

They are focusing, just not necessarily on what Collins thinks they should be focusing on.
They are focusing on her.

Summer may yet deliver an unwanted Freedom Day for Collins.