Asia New Zealand Foundation poll shows more Kiwis see China as threat, US trust hits new low

A new Asia New Zealand Foundation report reveals a rise in New Zealanders' perception of China as a threat, while trust in the US has hit a new low. Photo / Getty Images

A new poll shows a growing number of New Zealanders perceive China as a threat, with trust in the United States plunging to a record low.

As Prime Minister Christopher Luxon touches down in China today, the mood of New Zealanders towards the country has undergone a noticeable shift in the space of just a few months.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon meeting with China's President Xi Jinping at last year's Apec Summit in Peru. Photo / Pool

A report, New Zealanders’ Perceptions of Asia and Asian Peoples, released by the Asia New Zealand Foundation, surveyed 2300 New Zealanders between November and December 2024.

An additional poll was carried out in March after foreign policy developments in China and the US.

New Zealanders’ perception of China as a threat rose from 28% in November 2024 to 40% in March 2025.

The shift comes after developments in the Pacific region such as China’s naval exercises in the Tasman Sea and the signing of a strategic partnership agreement with the Cook Islands.

In March, 21% of New Zealanders viewed China as a friend, dropping from 38% at the end of 2024.

However, China was also ranked the highest out of Asian countries regarded as being the most important to New Zealand’s future.

China also ranked second highest for Asian countries that New Zealand wanted to invest more effort in, and 46% of people chose this based on trade and economic opportunities.

The highest-ranking country for priority relationships in Asia was Japan.

Asia New Zealand Foundation non-resident fellow Raf Manji said there was “a lot of worry about China” and the question of whether China would act in a way that was “expansionist or just regionalist”.

Victoria University of Wellington associate professor Jason Young said the March results showed quite “a staggering shift” but the long-term trajectory was trending more positively towards China, which was “surprising”.

There was a recognition from New Zealanders of the importance of China, he said.

New Zealanders’ trust in the US dropped from 33% in November to an all-time low of 21% by March.

Perceptions of the US fell more dramatically than China, from 61% of New Zealanders to 32% regarding the country as a friend.

Young said given the unpredictable and unstable nature of US foreign policy in recent months it was unsurprising to see a decrease in the level of trust.

“It will be interesting to see whether this drop is for this administration or a longer-term trend,” he said.

In response to a question about threats to New Zealand’s vital interests over the next 10 years, those people surveyed ranked fake news and misinformation as a major concern.

The result rose 7% from last year with 53% of New Zealanders regarding fake news and misinformation as highly concerning.

Asia New Zealand Foundation chief executive Suzannah Jessep said this year’s survey also reflected unease about growing global instability.

“Given our reliance on a stable international environment for trade and prosperity, these concerns are well-founded,” she said.

Eva de Jong is a New Zealand Herald reporter covering general news for the daily newspaper, Weekend Herald and Herald on Sunday. She was previously a Multimedia Journalist for the Whanganui Chronicle covering health stories and general news.

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