With two weeks to go, Labour has improved its polling a little, but not enough to dent National's commanding election race lead, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.
If the poll results were translated into votes, National could govern alone with 50.4 per cent of decided voters and 63 seats.
Prime Minister and Labour leader Helen Clark has improved in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, by 2.3 points, putting her fractionally ahead of National leader John Key, 45.4 per cent to 44.8 per cent. It is the first time she has been ahead since January.
Labour's 37 per cent poll figure means it would be able to muster 54 seats with the Progressives and the Greens.
The Maori Party, with four seats, would not hold the balance of power. Nor would it do so if it won all seven Maori seats but stayed on its 2.4 per cent poll rating in the party vote.
The economy remains the issue most likely to influence people's votes, and it has risen dramatically in importance. It is the No 1 issue for 34.6 per cent of those polled, against 28 per cent in the September poll.
Attitudes towards the Government are evenly balanced, 45.4 per cent saying it is heading in the right direction and 43.8 per cent saying it is not.
New Zealand First dropped to 2.1 per cent in the poll, and would disappear from Parliament unless leader Winston Peters can win Tauranga, eliminating the need to get 5 per cent of the party vote.
The gap between National and Labour in the Herald-DigiPoll survey is 13.4 points, a lot wider than last night's TV3 poll which showed Labour up a little to 37.4 per cent and National steady on 45.1 per cent.
Those figures translated into votes would mean Labour or National would be able to form a government with other parties. Either would require Maori Party support.
* The DigiPoll survey of 750 respondents was conducted from October 15 to 22. Undecideds were 12.4 per cent. The margin of error is 3.6 per cent.