By WYNNE GRAY
Among the many curiosities for the All Black coaching review panel will be why Wayne Smith has been unable to translate Super 12 triumph into national success.
Smith was appointed assistant coach for the All Blacks in 1998 and technical adviser a year later on the evidence of his achievements with the Crusaders.
Those same credentials and a feeling that Smith did not have a great deal of clout in the All Blacks allowed him to survive the cleanout after the World Cup to take over from John Hart.
Two years on and the results against major opponents remain inconsistent, with performances wayward.
Since Smith was first involved with the All Blacks in 1998, the side have won 23 tests and lost 13.
In his two years as coach they have won 12, lost five and have a success rate of 55 per cent against Australia, South Africa and France.
A review panel involving NZRFU chief executive David Rutherford, former national selector Lane Penn and ex-All Blacks John Graham, Sir Brian Lochore, Tane Norton, Andy Dalton and Richie Guy will meet Smith and his assistant Tony Gilbert tomorrow to assess those performances.
The committee's report and recommendation about the pair will be presented to the board of the NZRFU on Thursday, with a public decision by the end of the month.
Since the All Blacks won the first World Cup in 1987, the coach has been retained for four-year terms.
There have been glitches. Alex Wyllie had Hart foisted on him as a co-coach late in 1991, Laurie Mains came under severe pressure in 1994, and Hart survived a rigorous seven-hour inquisition after the shocks of 1998.
The coach has always endured, though there has been a pattern of adjustments to his staff.
On that historical evidence, noises already coming from Rutherford, a perceived lack of contenders and the strong relationship Smith appears to have with the NZRFU, a change of coach before the World Cup would surprise.
There has been speculation that Gilbert, as the forwards coach, might be in danger because of their unstable performances. Some suggest he could be replaced by Peter Sloane.
That would revive the Crusaders' association Smith favoured in his 1999 application, but was persuaded to abandon as the NZRFU pushed for Gilbert. However, it would not make much sense for the NZRFU to backtrack on that, nor on its decision to promote Smith to All Black coach after two poor assistant years in 1998 and 1999.
While there will be no public noises unless there are calls for applications, coaches such as Graham Henry, Robbie Deans, Wayne Shelford and John Mitchell would be a useful starting group.
Gilbert, alone, should not carry the responsibility for two ordinary seasons.
If it is decided his expertise about forward play is not strong enough, the NZRFU could do far worse than move him to the manager's role, where his kindly, sensible, thoughtful manner and rugby knowledge could replace that of Andrew Martin.
The roles of Martin and third selector Peter Thorburn are apparently not discussed by this review panel, though it would seem appropriate for them to look at the entire All Black structure.
The review will be done by a panel which is similar to the original group which picked Smith and Gilbert. Some see that as a sinister conflict, a rubber-stamp operation, while others say that group should assess Smith and Gilbert against the initial criteria they were judged on.
Smith has chosen to delegate his authority to the players and that empowerment idea has not worked, with the team remaining indecisive.
He has put enormous faith in statistics and computer analysis, the rugby by numbers routine which may be fine for the Wallabies and the Crusaders, but does not seem to suit the All Blacks.
Only in patches against the top sides have the All Blacks produced vibrant rugby, and inconsistencies remain - and that is just on the field.
That has been the pattern for the past two seasons, a situation the review panel must scrutinise and come up with answers for the run to the fifth World Cup.
Day of judgment for Smith, Gilbert
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