Next up is periodic thinking – repeating patterns, like walking, cycling, or anything intrinsic to our daily routine.
Third on the list, chaos, is that which is unpredictable, such as whether it will rain tomorrow, or the flip of a coin.
And finally, there is complex thinking, which relates to systems from our relationships to major organisations like the Government.
Applying mathematical models to everyday life takes balance, of course. “If my wife thinks I’m reasoning mathematically about her, she’s not going to be so thrilled about that,” said Prof Sumpter.
Still, maths has taught him that even bust-ups between spouses can be radically altered by tinkering with a few probabilities – and that “there are only two worthwhile arguments: Class I arguments, on their way to a stable resolution; and class IV arguments, where important new ideas are discussed but might never be resolved.
“Class IIs – recurrent bickering over the same contentious point – and class III, chaotic back-and-forths where we talk over each other, are to be avoided.”
By classifying the kind of dispute at hand, said Prof Sumpter, it is easier to assess “how I might move from class II to class I, or from class III to class IV. I can also think about how I can make my class I arguments converge to stability more rapidly”.
Mapping out the probabilities of what might spark and escalate spats – along with a foray into biology, analysing the inner workings of ant trails and honeybee colonies – laid the foundations for Sumpter’s move into top-level football.
These insights have become so crucial (he currently works with an elite Premier League team; his contract forbids him from saying which) that he has set up a company offering statistical services to those in the UK and beyond, including FC Barcelona.
His work involves calculating how players move together, how they open up space, and the manipulation of timings and tactics in order to translate into match wins. His hasn’t been the most traditional route for a mathematician.
“I’ve had a strange career,” he mulled over. “But I think it’s very much down to this idea that mathematics is a way of thinking, rather than a particular activity.”
Professor Sumpter’s life lessons
1. Find your balance between chaos and order
Chaos theory tells us that we can’t control everything. A sliding door or the flapping of butterfly wings can change everything.
This means we have to learn to let go of many things – not just the weather on our summer holiday, but also our colleagues’ behaviour, and the life choices of our children as they move into adulthood.
But chaos theory doesn’t mean we should just let go completely. Identify the things that are important to you – time with friends and family, or your own performance at work – and work hard on these. Let everything else go.
2. Use tipping points
Group dynamics often involve moving from one stable state (like lying on the couch) to another (an established fitness regime).
Moving between stable states is like tipping a seesaw from one end to the other. So, if you want your friends to join you in getting into shape, be prepared to make the effort required to “tip” the seesaw.
Work hard to get one or two of your friends going and, once they have caught the fitness bug, they will carry you and your other friends along with them.
3. Don’t look at outcomes; focus on rules of interaction
It isn’t important who started an argument; what is important is how you speak to each other. Identify the things others say that have the biggest chance of triggering you and focus on reducing the probability you lose your temper.
Think of your own responses and identify your strengths and weaknesses. Ultimately, the only person you can change is yourself.
4. Not all health studies apply to you
The latest study might say that doing the plank is better for our health than taking a walk. But if a long daily walk motivates you, then stick to that. Statistical studies of our health and happiness are powerful, but they apply to society as a whole, rather than specifically you as an individual.
