Whether you couldn't care less about the arrival of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's baby or you're second-screening Tristram Clayton's live feed from outside Auckland Hospital, there are many questions to be answered about the pending arrival of baby Ardern-Gayford.

The Herald spoke to a Kiwi midwife about how long the country is likely going to have to wait for Ardern to appear - Kate Middleton-esque - on the hospital steps with Clarke Gayford to present their little bundle to the nation.

According to our midwife, who's not involved with the case, it will likely take the rest of the day at least. She tells us: "Most first-time mums labour for 10-12 hours once in established labour so everyone may be in for a day of waiting."

Given Ardern went to hospital very early this morning, it can be deduced that she probably went into "spontaneous labour in the early hours of this morning" rather than being induced, our midwife advises. "My guess is that she hasn't gone in for an induction as that is usually timed for the start of a new shift, around 7.30am."


Noting there are "a whole lot of factors which we aren't aware of", she says it really could be anytime. Her best guess currently is later on tonight.