Aucklanders Premaloka and Paul Treacy, pictured with their six children, view their large family as a blessing.
Uber drivers say a lot of things, some of which we shouldn’t waste any brain cells on.
During a recent journey across Wellington, my driver shared his unprompted thoughts on Super Rugby (too many teams), crunchy vs smooth peanut butter (always crunchy) and his support of US Vice-President JD Vance’s disdain for “childless cat ladies who are miserable about their lives and the choices they’ve made”.
“Thanks to these women, we aren’t having enough children to replace ourselves,” said the driver, parroting Vance’s political views.
Thankfully, my destination arrived before I could tell him that, as a child-free woman (with two dogs, not cats), I’m far from miserable about my life choices, despite constantly bumping up against a society that equates womanhood with motherhood.
I thought of that driver when an email popped into my inbox about declining global fertility rates. According to research from Japan’s Shizuoka University, small population size and random birth patterns have raised the fertility threshold needed to avoid human extinction.
Which is academic speak for, we aren’t having enough babies to maintain the population of the human race.
It was previously believed that 2.1 children per woman was the replacement level needed to sustain the global population, but it’s now thought that the rate is higher – at 2.7 kids per woman.
It’s grim reading for a Saturday morning. But when three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries where lifetime fertility rates are below replacement levels – including Aotearoa where the fertility rate has dropped from 2.17 in 2010 to 1.56 per woman in 2023 – maybe the Uber driver (and, I hate to admit, Vance) has a point?
Sociologist and Massey University emeritus professor Paul Spoonley has been tracking birth rates for years. He believes there are three main reasons why women are choosing to have none or just one child.
“An important factor is the increasing number of females with tertiary qualifications – 43% of women have tertiary qualifications compared to 36% of men,” says Spoonley. “That means a greater participation by women in the workforce.”
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone but the cost of living is another reason we’re not rushing to have more children.
“Children are expensive and the increasing cost of living and housing can force the decision for some in terms of having children versus buying a house.”
Add to that the daily costs and trade-offs of employment, i.e. the so-called Motherhood Penalty or economic disadvantages faced by women in the workforce post-children, including pay and career advancement.
“Similar issues explain the increasing age of women having their first child,” says Spoonley. “Last year more children were born to women 40 and over compared to births to women aged 20 and under.”
If you thought climate change was the reason why some women aren’t reproducing, put a tick on your bingo card.
While Spoonley admits it’s difficult to tell how significant this issue is, and how many women it affects, “for the generation currently making fertility decisions, the environment is a growing consideration”.
Lucy Hughes* is one of those women. The Wellington policy analyst believes it’s “ethically unjustifiable to bring kids into a world that’s on fire”.
“The climate, and what humans are doing to it, is the number one crisis not just for my generation but for all of us,” believes the 28-year-old.
“I’m so worried about the catastrophic future this planet is hurtling towards, and the fact that governments aren’t doing anything about it, that I’ve decided the best thing I can do for the environment is not add to the number of humans fighting for ever-decreasing resources.”
Having been widely criticised by family and friends for her decision, Hughes is reluctant to use her real name for this story. But suggest that she’s contributing to the end of humanity and she’ll roll her eyes.
“I don’t judge anyone for having kids but they feel free to judge me. I’ve been called selfish and stupid but my position is, faced with a future of war, flooding, heatwaves and food shortages – and politicians in various states of denial – I think I’m right not to have kids.”
Jacinta Woodnutt has the kind of close-knit, wholesome family people make sitcoms about. The mother of six shares a four-bedroom home with her husband, high school teacher Stephen Woodnutt, and their six children – five boys and one girl who range in age from 14-3.
Their suburban Christchurch house is cramped and sometimes so noisy that Australian expat Woodnutt, 35, escapes to her bedroom for “five minutes of peace”.
“It can be hard raising six kids, especially on a single income, but there’s a lot of joy and laughter in our house.”
Woodnutt, who met her Kiwi husband when they were both students at a Sydney Catholic university, admits that the couple’s strong faith played a large part in their decision to have six children.
“As per the church’s guidance, we use natural family planning practices. But the real reason for having six kids is that we both come from large families [Woodnutt has 10 siblings, her husband has four] and we both really love kids. We believe children are a blessing and a gift from God.”
Not everyone sees it like that: Woodnutt is often met with raised eyebrows and comments such as “Don’t you know which century you’re living in?” and “You don’t need to have lots of kids any more”.
“I’ve had total strangers say to me, don’t you have a TV? Sometimes people are genuinely interested in what it’s like to raise six kids but many are just rude.”
Having been at the sharp end of judgment, Woodnutt would never judge anyone who chose not to have children.
“Just as I don’t want people to have a go at me for my fertility decisions, I would never criticise anyone because it’s nobody’s business. I totally respect their choice.”
But what about declining birth rates?
“I’m definitely concerned about that because it means fewer doctors and people we need for the future. For me, a child is a sign of hope so while I understand the perspective of those who don’t want to bring children into this terrible world, we have to have hope.”
It’s a sentiment that’s repeated, almost verbatim, a few days later at the other end of the motu.
Premaloka Treacy is a yoga therapist on Waiheke Island who owns Prem Heart Yoga School and Lily & Lotus cafe/concept store, and is mother to six children aged from 10 to 26.
Treacy, her Irish husband Paul and two of their six children live behind the cafe (her oldest two recently moved to Dublin for their OEs, one is studying in Wellington and one flats in Auckland).
“I never ever considered I wouldn’t have children,” says Treacy. “We thought we’d have three or four but to be honest, we didn’t really plan any of our children. And then I got addicted to having kids. They’re the biggest blessing in our lives and we’re a really strong, close family.”
Treacy would be the first to admit that not everyone is cut out to follow her example.
“Kids are a huge financial cost and a lifetime commitment and I understand that not everyone feels the same bond as I do, or that some women have had trauma in their lives or don’t want the disruption. It’s certainly not easy having six kids, especially when we had four under 5 years old, but when you have a child you bring hope into the world – hope for good, kind people who will make a difference. I’d never say to anyone, have a baby because our birth rates are falling but if you love and want kids and have the support to do so, then go for it because that child will bring you joy.”
* Name has been changed to protect identity
In Hungary, if you’re the mother of four or more children, you don’t have to pay income tax for life. Hungary also offers subsidies to help large families buy cars and houses. Poland, too, offers incentives.
Hong Kong offers cash bonuses for each newborn as well as easier access to subsidised housing for families with children. South Korea, which has the world’s lowest birth rate, is also offering cash incentives to new parents. Russia has extended a hefty cash payment, originally for new adult mothers, to include school girls in an attempt to reverse a dramatic decline in the country’s birthrate.
But Spoonley warns that these policies haven’t stopped fertility decline.
“The interesting thing is that pro-natal policies of various governments around the world have had almost no impact on fertility decisions or reversing fertility decline. Sweden, which has far more generous pro-natal packages than New Zealand, did see a small blip but reverted to ongoing low fertility.”
Spoonley believes the key is to figure out exactly what’s driving falling rates so that governments can introduce effective policies to combat it. “International experience shows that it’s hard to reverse fertility decline. We need to better understand the issue and look at alternatives such as better educational investments and productivity improvements.”