The Queen is still very much at the forefront of the Firm, but will reduce her engagements. Photo / Getty Images
Were it not for the war in Ukraine, news that the Queen is unlikely to ever undertake some major public engagements again would have been more prominent on the front pages.
While it is hardly surprising that age-related concessions are having to be made for someone turning 96 next month, the monarch has been such a stalwart of public life for the past seven decades that it is hard to imagine the biggest Royal occasions without her.
Yet the great-grandmother's conspicuous absence from Monday's Commonwealth Day Service has undoubtedly given us a glimpse of the Royal future.
With the Prince of Wales and Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall, leading the way at Westminster Abbey – and the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge following in crowd-pleasing pursuit – the monarchy is having to respond rapidly to concerns over the Queen's mobility as she marks her Platinum Jubilee year.
Unlikely to ever undertake hours of investitures again, the Queen's workload has been "under review" as palace aides work with royal doctors to ensure that she paces herself, ahead of a series of events to celebrate her historic 70 years on the throne this summer.
Appearances that require her to walk significant distances or stand for extended periods will be curtailed after the Queen herself admitted to a pair of military visitors to Windsor Castle last month: "As you can see, I can't move."
Having started using a walking stick last October, there is now talk behind palace gates of whether she may have to use a wheelchair – something she has so far resisted.
A service of thanksgiving for the life of the Duke of Edinburgh, who died in April 2021 aged 99, will take place at Westminster Abbey on March 29, and the Queen is said to be "determined" to attend.
All possible tweaks will be made to make it more comfortable, from shortened routes from car to pew, and as few meet-and-greet demands in front of the cameras as can be deemed polite.
Palace sources have been at pains to stress that the sovereign is not ill and is "as committed to her duties of state as ever". But senior royal aides – as well as the Queen herself – are understood to have accepted that the "frailties that come with living a long life" are finally catching up with her.
"It's about pacing her diary now," one source said, conceding the days of the Queen dashing across the country, day after day, for plaque unveilings and walkabouts are a thing of the past.
"She has said herself that she is as committed to service as ever, but that will have to take a slightly different form."
As veteran royal reporter and author Phil Dampier explains: "It's quite simple, really. She's finding it extremely difficult to walk or stand for long periods. She will make a huge effort to attend the Prince Philip memorial, but they will have to make allowances for her – and no one will begrudge it. She's nearly 96."
Naturally, talk of "scaling back" on duties has prompted talk of a regency – or even abdication, despite it being "a dirty word" in the Queen's vocabulary.
In his 2018 book, Charles at Seventy, the respected royal correspondent Robert Jobson suggested that the Queen would "seriously consider passing the reins to Charles" when she turned 95.
When it did not happen, royal-watching whispers turned to "a regency in all but name", following the Platinum Jubilee celebrations in June this year.
Yet, as Dampier points out, "that would only happen if the Queen was completely bedridden. Her brain is still pin-sharp – she's 100 per cent on the ball mentally, she's just got mobility problems."
Insisting that she would "never abdicate", he adds: "Abdication has been a dirty word in the Queen's vocabulary, since Edward VIII forced her father, George VI, to become king. The Queen still believes that was a factor in his premature death in 1952. I don't think she would ever abdicate.
"Logic might suggest it's a good idea – she's done 70 years and broken every record in the book. But she won't [abdicate], as she regards her Coronation Oath as a sacred vow before God."
Aside from anything else, a regency cannot happen unless the Queen is truly incapable, diagnosed as such by doctors and declared in writing by three out of the four of the Lord Chancellor, the Speaker of the House of Commons, the Lord Chief Justice of England, and the Master of the Rolls.
It is not a mechanism to be used lightly. Only on Monday, in a written message to the Commonwealth, the Queen said: "In this year of my Platinum Jubilee, it has given me pleasure to renew the promise I made in 1947, that my life will always be devoted in service."
For those who have been paying the closest attention, there have already been shifts towards a new era of a less visible, a more 'behind the scenes' Queen.
While royal aides have warned against ruling out the Queen doing "smaller or one-off" investitures, much of the heavy lifting-of-the-sword has already been devolved to Princes Charles and William, and Princess Anne.
Video calls, necessitated by lockdown, have been a welcome addition to the Queen's armoury in terms of being seen, allowing her to hold valuable conversations at a gentler physical pace.
In April 2018, the heir to the throne was appointed as the Queen's successor as head of the Commonwealth – and, in June, Charles and Camilla will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Kigali, Rwanda, on the Queen's behalf.
As she stopped travelling long-haul in 2010, we have already experienced more than a decade of the Queen's children and grandchildren representing her overseas. William and Kate are travelling to the Caribbean this weekend for an eight-day tour, while Charles and Camilla will visit the Republic of Ireland next week. Edward and Sophie, the Earl and Countess of Wessex, who were in New York and Kenya last week, are also expected to step up their foreign visits as international ambassadors of the Duke of Edinburgh's Award programme.
In memory of his father, The Earl of Wessex plants a tree in Ruiru, Kenya.
— The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) March 18, 2022
His Royal Highness is visiting Kenya in his role as Chairman of The Duke of Edinburgh’s @intaward to see the positive impact of the Awards, which his father founded in 1956. pic.twitter.com/xfVHB6kCmf
News that the Queen will never move back into Buckingham Palace – preferring to remain permanently at Windsor Castle, the residence she has always regarded as "home", compared with the "office" in central London – suggests that audiences will be tailored to HM's needs.
The Prime Minister will meet her there for their weekly meetings, while ambassadors and high commissioners have already grown used to having their coveted conversations with the Queen via video link.
Some make the journey from London to Berkshire to see her in the comfort of her own sitting room, full of her treasured possessions, family photographs and memories of her life with Prince Philip.
Yet the redrawing of the royal diary does raise questions. Will she be able to hand out Maundy money to pensioners this Easter, as she did each year before Covid? What about the walk in front of the cameras for Garter Day in June? Her favourite summer event of Royal Ascot?
For one particular royal occasion, the State Opening of Parliament, due to take place on May 18, concessions have already been made for her. A "stripped-back" ceremony was put in place for 2019, with the Queen swapping her heavy robes and Imperial Crown for simple day dress to read the Government's speech; the crown, representing the authority of the monarch, was placed on a cushion.
The uncomfortable ride to the Sovereign's entrance of the Palace of Westminster in a carriage was replaced by a Bentley. She has only ever missed the event twice before, when she was pregnant; in her absence, her speeches were read by the Lord Chancellor.
So what does this all mean for this summer's Platinum Jubilee, when the country and Commonwealth will join to celebrate Her Majesty's reign in an all-singing, all-dancing spectacle of pomp and pageant?
At previous Jubilees, the Queen and Philip have been centre stage. (Who could forget their admirable fortitude during a rainy procession along the Thames for the Diamond Jubilee, a decade ago?)
This time, planners hope Her Majesty will be there for the "most important bits". Should she not feel up to it on the day, there is contingency for one of her children or grandchildren to step in on her behalf so the show can go on.
An appearance on the Buckingham Palace balcony, at the crescendo of the celebrations, is still hoped for; the Queen sitting through an entire pop concert on the Mall, less likely.
But, that said, the Queen is still full of surprises. "Just because she can't do something right now," said a palace source, "doesn't mean she won't be able to do it again."
The Queen's old mantra "I have to be seen to be believed" no longer need trouble her. She has been seen all over the world, and is admired and loved by generations.
Yes, her people hope to celebrate her Jubilee alongside her. But if she watches some of it on television at home, we will quite understand.