By FRED WEIR
MOSCOW - Russians go to the polls tomorrow and on Monday to vote in a new President after a premature and brief election campaign that has featured little excitement and even less political choice.
The only suspense hinges on whether the overwhelming favourite, Acting President Vladimir Putin, will command an outright majority in Sunday's polls. If not, he will have to face a run-off in three weeks, probably against lacklustre Communist challenger Gennady Zyuganov.
"It is very important for Putin to win a first round victory," says Andrei Kortunov, the director of the Moscow Scientific Fund, a private think tank.
"That would give him the mandate he wants to start immediately with sweeping changes. If it drags on to a second round Putin is still almost certain to win, but things will be more complicated and his authority will seem diluted."
According to Russia's strict election laws, at least half of the 107 million registered voters must cast ballots, and supporters of the "none of the above" option must not exceed those of the front-running candidate.
Although 11 contenders are in the running to replace ex-President Boris Yeltsin, who unexpectedly resigned on New Year's Eve, the short five-week campaign has left the impression that there is really only one.
Putin, the 47-year-old ex-KGB agent, has dominated the election by vigorously exploiting the advantages of incumbency.
Though he declined to officially campaign, Putin has criss-crossed the country in a series of dramatically-staged "working visits," including a fighter plane ride to the war-torn southern republic of Chechnya and a photo-opportunity on a nuclear-powered icebreaker to Archangelsk.
His every move has been exhaustively covered by fawning state-owned TV networks, eclipsing the exposure given to all other candidates combined.
The final pre-election poll, conducted last week by the independent ROMIR agency, suggested Putin would take 57 per cent of the votes, comfortably above the threshold for a first-round victory.
His nearest rival, Zyuganov, trailed far behind with 25 per cent. Liberal Grigory Yavlinsky was third with 6 per cent and ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky had just 3 per cent support. About 3 per cent of the poll's 1500 respondents said they would exercise their right to vote "none of the above."
"The key feature of this election is not Putin's great popularity and mastery of the media, but the complete absence of any credible alternative," says Boris Kagarlitsky, a well-known left-wing philosopher and leader of a movement encouraging Russians to vote "none of the above."
"This election was engineered by Yeltsin's sudden resignation to short-circuit the political process and curtail the natural process of choice.
"The so-called alternative candidates have not even tried to campaign seriously. They are just camouflage for a massive power-grab by the Kremlin elite."
Even Zyuganov has admitted that his campaign platform is roughly identical to the electoral promises made by Putin.
Both call for stronger state power, Government-guided market reforms, higher public sector wages and pensions, stern measures against crime and ruthless prosecution of the war against separatist rebels in Chechnya.
Putin has offered few particulars of his plans, but has carefully honed his image as an incorruptible and uncompromising leader who will restore Russia's faded national power and global prestige.
That clearly strikes a chord with Russians, who have endured a decade of economic depression, social disorder and humiliation on the world stage.
A survey conducted in early March by the privately-funded Institute for Comparative Social Research found that 72 per cent of Russians believe the Kremlin must be given more authority to ensure economic and social stability.
Only Yavlinsky has used his election platform to criticise the war in Chechnya and warn that the current enthusiasm for stronger state power could lead Russia into a familiar historic tragedy.
"Putin's rule has already seen our economic potential crippled by huge expenditures on the war in Chechnya and the re-introduction of censorship in the media," Yavlinsky said. "The country is drifting back towards totalitarianism."
But that is not likely to cut much ice with voters.
In the decade that Russia has enjoyed democracy, an election-night pattern has emerged. Results coming in from the Far East and Siberia show communist and nationalist gains but as the vote count moves west and reaches European cities, particularly Moscow, a swing towards liberal politicians balances the national picture.
"Whether it's Putin in the first round or Putin in the second, it will be Putin," says Vladimir Petukhov, an expert with the independent Institute of Social and National Problems.
"He may be a hard-nosed former KGB man, who cares little about human rights or democracy, but it seems he's what Russians want right now.
"It just proves that people get the Government they deserve."
Putin's a dead cert in contest
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