Peter Thiel's spook software outfit Palantir has more than doubled in value since it listed on the New York Stock Exchange on October 2 - likely edging the entrepreneur ahead of Graeme Hart to become the richest New Zealand, citizen.
Back-of-the-envelope calculations now have Thiel worth just under $11 billion against Hart's $10b, according to NBR's Rich List (the third and fourth-placed Todd and Mowbray families on only $4b and $3b respectively).
Palantir listed at US$7.25 a share and closed Friday at US$18.15 for a market cap of US$34.08 billion.
An SEC filing also revealed that Thiel personally, plus funds he controlled, owned 17.7 per cent of Palantir - substantially above previous guesstimates of 10 per cent - valuing the Thiel's stake at just under US$5.8 billion.
Thiel is reported to have made around US$2.3 billion from his early investments in Facebook and PayPal.
That means that, in rough terms, his wealth could now be around US$8.1b or $10.99b.
It could go higher. In the buildup to its public listing, after Palantir shared some of its internal metrics with Morgan Stanley bankers, the bank returned with a value range of US$36b to US$41b.
In the end, its NYSE debut was more muted, with a $16b market cap.
The Denver-based Palantir (named after the all-seeing crystal ball that the evil wizard Saruman uses to spy on his enemies in Tolkien) creates data-mining software - used by intelligence around the world, including our own (keep reading) to find patterns in masses of intercepted communications.
Pre-listing filings revealed Palantir's business wasn't as large or lucrative as some thought. (For 2019, it posted a loss of US$579.6 million, roughly even with 2018, on revenue that increased 25 per cent to $742m).
And Donald Trump - whose administration had sent business Palantir's way, for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) and other areas - seemed to be on the way out (as confirmed by the result of the November 4 election).
But on November 4, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of US$289m - way above analysts' expectations, and 52 per cent ahead of the year-ago quarter (it lost US$847m, but only because it took an US$847.8m charge for stock-based compensation).
Its full-year revenue guidance was bumped up to US1.1b, and it forecast full-year operating earnings of between $US130m and US$136.m.
More, Palantir could reveal there was plenty in its pipeline for the post-Trump age.
New contracts in the quarter included a US$91m deal with the US Army, a US$36m contract with the National Institutes of Health and a US$300m renewal with an un-named aerospace customer.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the outsize voting rights for insiders setup at Facebook (where Thiel remains a director), Palantir and Karp will still be able to maintain majority control even if their stake falls as low as 6 per cent. (Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has used his super voting rights to repeatedly brush aside reform bids by the NZ Super Fund and other investors in the social network).
Afghanistan to NZ
Co-founded by Thiel and Alex Karp in 2004, Palantir makes software that helps security and law enforcement clients like the NSA, CIA and FBI mine mountains of "big data" from electronic surveillance.
Its software is credited with helping US authorities hunt down and kill Osama bin Laden.
Our GCSB and SIS won't confirm or deny if they are Palantir customers but the company has an office in Wellington and the GCSB has advertised for staff proficient in Palantir's software. Born-and-bred Kiwi Jonty Kelt was until recently one of Palantir's most senior executives. And a Herald investigation uncovered that the NZ Defence Force has spent more than $7.2m with Palantir since 2012.
And on its website currently, as part of a recruitment campaign for software engineers, Palantir says, "We meet problems where they live. Wherever our users are — whether it's Afghanistan or Atlanta, New York or New Zealand — we are there too".
Thiel hit local headlines in 2017 when it was revealed he had been made a New Zealand citizen since 2011 - despite spending just 11 days in the country.
The German-born, Californian-resident entrepreneur's Kiwi passport was fast-tracked as he invested millions in local startups including Xero and Vend.
Thiel subsequently lost enthusiasm for local tech investments but did become a prolific buyer of property around Queenstown and Wanaka, as featured in the Vice documentary, Hunt for the Bunker People.
His interest in NZ did perk up recently with an investment in a photo management startup. Perhaps, flush, from the successful Palantir listing, other local investments could follow.
The art of the Thiel
Thiel donated millions to the Trump campaign in 2016, and spoke at the Republican National Convention in the run-up to the election.
However, a recent Wall Street Journal report said Thiel has become disillusioned with Trump over his coronavirus response.
The paper noted the billionaire was not down to speak at this year's Republican convention, and he has not donated any money to the Trump 2020 campaign, according to Federal Election Commission records.