Using Australian Bureau of Statistics and International Air Travel Association (IATA) data, APAC concludes Wellington's strongest growth has been in short-haul traffic between the capital and Australian cities and the Pacific Islands, where most of the growth in new routes to Wellington has been in recent years.
"Presently, Wellington has no markets with sufficient origin-destination demand beyond New Zealand, Australia or the Pacific Islands that could support nonstop services with adequate frequency."
The report makes almost no mention of improved export freight-forwarding opportunities that might arise from a longer runway - the main benefit cited by Wellington Chamber of Commerce head John Milford in a call for support from local businesses ahead of last Friday's deadline for submissions to the Wellington Regional Council on the airport company's application for a resource consent to undertake the $350 million project.
It is seeking to make Wellington an alternative long-haul destination to Auckland, the dominant airline gateway, the existing second gateway, Christchurch, and Queenstown, which is increasingly connected by direct flights from Australia.
The airport company is owned 66 per cent by Infratil, the NZX-listed infrastructure company, and 33 per cent by Wellington City Council. It is seeking the majority of the $350m cost of a runway extension from central Government and Wellington ratepayers because it argues the benefits would accrue more to the country and the region rather than the airport owner, which cannot justify the expansion on purely commercial grounds.