International accounting firm PwC is forecasting ups and downs in the New Zealand media and entertainment sector over the next four years punctuated by disruptive digital technology.
The PwC entertainment and media outlook for 2014 to 2019 illustrates a big shift to digital media, including phones, and to digital advertising.
Predictably, mobile advertising on smartphones is a big growth area but despite the hype PwC notes it will account for only 4.4 per cent of total internet advertising revenue in 2019.
Physical home video, especially video rentals, is a big loser in the next four years, according to the forecasts issued today. Spending on digital content is forecast to continue to grow at 10 per cent year-on-year to 2019.
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Spending on non-digital content will increase by just 0.13 per cent year-on-year, which is slightly better than the 0.5 per cent decline predicted last year.
Internet advertising is forecast to rise 11.2 per cent year-on-year through to 2019.
PwC forecasts the total entertainment and media industry in New Zealand will grow at an average annual rate of 3.8 per cent to 2019, compared with 5.1 per cent globally.
Notably, looking across all segments in New Zealand to 2019, overall advertising revenues will rise at a rate of 1.5 per cent year-on-year - less than consumer spending at a growth rate of 2.9 per cent.
New Zealand's total internet advertising revenue rose 10.8 per cent year-on-year in 2014, reaching $435 million.
Total internet advertising revenue will have compounded annual growth of 11.2 per cent over the forecast period and by 2019, the market will be worth $737 million.
Paid search, display and classified have broadly similar shares of the total internet advertising market, with paid search internet advertising revenue accounting for the largest share at 32.4 per cent in 2014.