There has been talk that the LVR speed limits have caused a dramatic drop in sales at the lower end of the market. It seemed to me that in the current rising market the actual number of properties worth less than, say, $400k would be decreasing, so it should be
Property Report: The bottom is perkier than you think
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There were 714,000 properties worth less than $400k for sale nationwide a year ago. That's dropped 8 per cent. Photo / NZH
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When looking at how many sub $400,000 properties have sold, sure enough Auckland has dropped, with just over 1000 in the first three months of this year compared to 1700 a year ago and 4300 in 2007. On the North Shore there were only 45 sales in the first three months of this year, compared to 476 in 2007.
In cases such as this, where the base stock is changing, a better measure is percentage turnover. That is, the percentage of properties in an area selling during a given time period. In the first quarter of this year 1.7 per cent of low-end (less than $400,000) properties sold in greater Auckland. That's only slightly down from 1.9 per cent a year ago, but well below 3.0 per cent at the previous 2007 market peak. Interestingly, during the 2009 recession turnover dropped to 1.2 per cent.
What does all that mean? Clearly the number of properties worth less than $400,000 has dropped - and, in Auckland, quite dramatically. But a corresponding drop in the number of sales does not mean that the bottom end of the market has fallen away, just that there are fewer to buy. It does of course raise affordability questions, but let's leave that for now.
A better way to look at the bottom end of the market is to consider the lowest 10 per cent of properties, independent of arbitrary dollar value ranges. In greater Auckland, the lowest 10 per cent of properties have a median value of $430,000. A year ago the lowest 10 per cent were worth $375k, in 2007 it was $330,000 and 10 years ago $222,000. Just to scare you a bit, the lowest 10 per cent of North Shore properties are currently worth $545,000!
To see if the bottom end of the market is, in fact, less active, we looked at what percentage of all sales came from that lowest 10 per cent of properties. In the first three months of this year 11.7 per cent of all sales in greater Auckland were from that lowest 10 per cent of properties. A year ago it was 10.1 per cent, and around the time of the LVR speed limits there was a slight surge up to 12.1 per cent as people rushed to get in before the limits came into force. The picture is similar across parts of Auckland.
So rather than the bottom end of the market plummeting since the LVR speed limits came on, activity has stayed stronger than long-term average and above the same time last year.