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Home / Business / Personal Finance

<EM>Richard Inder:</EM> NZ a long way from a crash

18 Apr, 2005 08:23 PM2 mins to read

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Opinion by

A bout of investor jitters that knocks $1 billion from the value of the New Zealand sharemarket is not something to be shrugged off lightly.

Stockmarkets are the barometers of the world's economies.

Legions of investors and analysts digest the signs.

They pore over the utterances of central bank governors,
chief executives and politicians and take bets on economies and company earnings.

Many are now betting on a slowing United States economy.

Expectations of higher interest rates, as the US Federal Reserve keeps a lid on inflation, have cut expectations of growth.

It was mainly this shift in sentiment, sparked by earnings warnings from blue-chip stocks such as IBM, Apple and General Motors and unfavourable economic data, that sparked the heavy sell-off here.

A slowdown in North America, the engine of the world economy, weakens the prospects for global economic growth.

This translates into weaker corporate earnings, reduced employment prospects, weaker wage and salary growth and generally lower wealth accumulation.

A slump also hits those planning for retirement.

As the market falls so does the value of one's nest-egg.

The New Zealand market has been looking expensive after heading north for more than two years.

And with a consensus building that the kiwi dollar has reached its peak, it makes sense for the many foreign investors in the New Zealand market to book those gains.

But yesterday's fall is not a reason for panic.

There was little corporate news to spark such a sell-off.

Our economy looks set to ease in the coming year.

Indeed, the Reserve Bank, worried about the economy running at full throttle, has spent most of the last year attempting to slow it down.

Meanwhile, more than a year of the kiwi trading above 60USc will eventually hit exporters and the all-important rural sector.

But most expect growth to continue.

Unemployment is at historical lows, while consumer and business confidence remains at record highs.

A correction was in order, but we are a long way from a crash.

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