NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

OCR: Reserve Bank to tighten monetary conditions 'at pace' as it hikes rate by 50 basis points

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
13 Jul, 2022 02:01 AM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Business reporter Jamie Grey explains the Reserve Bank's decision to lift the Official Cash Rate to 2.5 per cent. Video / Cameron Pitney

The Reserve Bank has raised its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5 per cent in its latest bid to head off inflation.

The increase - the third 50 basis point rise in a row - was largely expected by the market.

The Reserve Bank said its monetary policy committee had agreed that it remained appropriate "to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment".

"The level of global economic activity, combined with the ongoing supply disruptions largely driven by both Covid-19 persistence and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, continues to generate global inflation pressures," the bank said.

New Zealand's annual inflation rate hit 6.9 per cent for the year to March, the largest movement since 1990.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The wholesale interest rate market has priced in the OCR peaking at 3.94 per cent, matching the Reserve Bank's own forecast peak rate.

The bank noted that food and energy prices had been especially affected by geopolitical tension.

"However, the pace of global economic growth is slowing."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

In New Zealand, domestic spending remains supported by high employment levels, resilient household balance sheets in aggregate, continued fiscal support, and a strong terms of trade.

The reduction in Covid-19 health-related restrictions was also enabling increased demand.

"Labour and resource scarcity are also contributing to upward price pressures which are currently exacerbated by seasonal illness, a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, and a net outflow of labour abroad.

"In these circumstances, spending and investment demand continues to outstrip supply capacity, with a broad range of indicators highlighting pervasive inflation pressures."

Employment remained above its maximum sustainable level and the Reserve Bank's core inflation measures were around 4 per cent, it said.

The committee said there was a near-term "upside risk" to consumer price inflation and emerging medium-term downside risks to economic activity.

The New Zealand dollar was barely changed after the 2pm release, trading at US61.27c.

The Reserve Bank, along with most central banks around the world, is tightening monetary conditions in a bid to curtail rising inflation.

As expected

Market watchers were unsurprised by the move.

CoreLogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said with inflation still a big problem and employment high, there were no barriers to today's 50 point hike and it was reasonable to assume this move would be followed by another 50 point rise in August, before a couple more 0.25 point increases in October and November.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The question remains, he said, could the OCR keep rising next year?

"The Reserve Bank has certainly indicated a peak of around 4 per cent. But one problem with monetary policy is inflation only responds to OCR changes with a lag, today's move may only impact consumer prices next year.

"And with the risks lingering that the economy could hit the skids sooner than anticipated, an OCR peak of 4 per cent is not guaranteed."

Housing market implications

Davidson said the current monetary policy tightening cycle was sustaining the upwards pressure on mortgage rates and the downwards pressure on property values.

"We've already seen popular one-year special (high equity) fixed rates rise from a range of 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent only a year ago to the 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent mark now.

"In terms of annual mortgage repayments, this equates to an extra $2,050 per year or so for every $100,000 of debt. This will be testing the finances of all borrowers, let alone those new to the market, and may mean the affordability equation doesn't improve much, even as incomes rise and house prices decline."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Earlier today, new data released by Real Estate Institute showed the number of Auckland unsold properties more than doubled in the past year.

The data showed 13,861 homes for sale in June last year. But that soared to 25,271 nationwide last month.

Fewer places are selling - due to factors including rising interest rates and high prices.

What does it mean for mortgage rates?

Bank economists noted the Reserve Bank committee continued with its "fighting talk" on inflation, even as growth is slowing, but the market had antipated and priced in today's move.

"In short, the Bank has got more work to do to ensure it is cooling demand enough to bring inflation back into line with its target," said ASB economist Nathaniel Keall.

"We mostly share this calculus. While slowing growth will be painful, the starting point for the NZ labour market remains extremely tight (indeed, employment is still well above its maximum sustainable level) and the risks to the RBNZ's mandate are asymmetrically skewed.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"It'll be less painful to cut later if the Bank does tighten a bit too quickly now than it would be to have to hike by much more in future and crunch the economy if inflation expectations become well and truly unanchored."

ANZ's Sharon Zollner and David Croy said todays decision was straightforward in that it was consistent with the Reserve Bank's previous published forecast, analyst forecasts and market pricing.

"The market reaction to today's decision was very muted. Having gone into today with about 54bps of hikes priced in, it was only the very short end of the interest rate curve that really needed to recalibrate to the decision, and with no discernible change to the RBNZ's language/tone, it's logical that 1-2year swap rates have not moved far," they said in a research note.

"There was certainly nothing in today's decision to suggest that the RBNZ is about to
blink in the face of downside growth risks the reality is they can't afford to, given where inflation and inflation expectations sit.

"Our OCR forecast remains unchanged: another 50bp hike in August, but then slowing to 25bp hikes as the balance between near-term downside risks and medium term inflation pressures becomes more nuanced than it is currently."

Westpac economist Michael Gordon said the main signal to take from today's statement was the lack of a signal.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"There is no change in the RBNZ's plans to get on top of inflation through assertive action.

The August review itself may be an opportunity to review the situation. For one, the OCR will have reached 3 per cent by that point, much closer to the endpoint that the RBNZ envisages. Secondly, it will have the benefit of a full set of economic forecasts, along with additional time to consider the weakening global backdrop. We still expect further, though more modest, rate hikes beyond that, reaching a peak of 3.50 per cent."

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Shares

Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

09 May 06:03 AM
Premium
Media Insider

Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

09 May 05:43 AM
Premium
Media Insider

'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

09 May 05:42 AM

“Not an invisible footprint”: Why technology supply chains need optimising

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

09 May 06:03 AM

The NZ sharemarket rose strongly today as gentailers made gains across the board.

Premium
Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

09 May 05:43 AM
Premium
'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

09 May 05:42 AM
Butter prices: Here’s how much they  might still rise

Butter prices: Here’s how much they might still rise

09 May 05:03 AM
Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance
sponsored

Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP