NZ investors pick post-election winners and losers

The lower kiwi dollar benefits the export-based industries, so Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, which derives most of its earnings in US dollars. Picture / supplied.

With the ink barely dry on the new government's coalition agreement, investors are already laying bets as to who they think will win and who will lose under the new Labour-led regime.

Since Labour's deal with New Zealand First and the Greens was announced, the Kiwi dollar has dropped by just over US2c (from US71c) amid general nervousness about the change in the political landscape.

By coincidence a rebound in the US dollar has put more downward pressure on the Kiwi.

While the broader share market seems to have taken the change of government in its stride, analysts said it could have been a different story if it were not for the fact that strengthening offshore markets have helped to underpin local sentiment.

KIWI DOLLAR
The lower kiwi dollar benefits the export-based industries, so Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, which derives most of its earnings in US dollars, has already seen its share price appreciate, closing yesterday at $13.30, up 47c or 3.7 per cent since the coalition was formed last Thursday.

Among the other exporters manuka honey company Comvita closed at $8.35 up 6.3 per cent, up NZ King Salmon 7.5 per cent.

Conversely, the weaker NZ dollar is seen as working against companies like Sky Network TV and Air New Zealand, whose key inputs are paid for in US dollars.

PORTS RALLY
Coalition partner NZ First's insistence that a study be done on shifting Auckland's port has benefited the share prices of Port of Tauranga which closed yesterday at $4.59 up 2,9 per cent and Marsden Maritime Holdings (formerly Northland Port) which closed at $5.65 - an 8.6 per cent gain on its pre-deal level.

As the bulk of New Zealand's forestry crop is exported through the two ports, they can be expected to benefit in the long run from Labour and NZ First's attempts to revitalise the forestry industry.

VILLAGE CASUALTIES
Real-estate sensitive retirement village stocks have been hit hard. Ryman Healthcare has dropped by 52c, or 5.4 per cent, Metlifecare is at $5.80, down 3.8 per cent, Summerset was down 3.5 per cent at $4.90 and Oceania at 96c down 7.7 per cent since the deal was announced.

There are clouds on the horizon for real estate, with a raft of new policies covering immigration to the tax treatment given to negative gearing, seen as on putting a dampener on a market that has been running hot.

Deutsche Bank, in a research note, said: "We expect the new Labour-led Government's policies will lead to lower house price growth than would have been the case under National and have cut our unit price inflation estimates by 1 per cent per year for the next six years, which lowers our target prices across the (retirement village) sector by 4 to 6 per cent."

WINNERS AND LOSERS
Salt Funds managing director Matt Goodson said imposition of a regional petrol tax could hit discretionary spending, which could have an impact on retailing.

"You can see the broad brush policies," Goodson said.

"Not every one of them is going to be successfully implemented and some may go even further than one might expect," he said.

"At this early stage, exporters and those with overseas operations will be the winners and retirement villages and retailers will be the losers," Goodson said.

SHEPPARD'S RETURN
Veteran shareholder activist Bruce Sheppard was in fine form at Fletcher Building's annual meeting this week.

Dressed as a priest, Sheppard said he hadn't attended a Fletcher annual meeting since the company purchased Formica - a move which he warned against at the time - but said that there was no way the company would ever be rid of him.

Sheppard said the board's penance for its earnings downtrade seemed appropriate - the board will all take a 20 per cent pay cut over the next year - while their confessions were "sort of complete".

He also urged the company to learn from lessons past that bigger was not always better.

"I would expect your top line to decline and your margins to improve," he told the board, "but my bet is your top line will continue to grow and you margin will shrink."

Norris said a lot of effort had gone into making changes that would ensure the sins of the past were not repeated.