Stats NZ said that traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia, averaging about 30,000 per year from 2004 to 2013 and 3000 per year from 2014 to 2019.
Kiwis leaving in record numbers
Annual migrant departures in May 2025 were 124,500 – provisionally the highest on record – and up 14% compared with May 2024.
Migrant arrivals in the 12 months to May fell 26% when compared with the previous year, to 139,400.
New Zealand had an annual net migration gain of 14,800 in the year to May 2025.
Kiwis made up the largest group of migrant arrivals (24,900), followed by citizens from India (21,700); China (16,000); Philippines (11,500); Sri Lanka (6100) and the United Kingdom (4500).
New Zealand’s migrant departures are stabilising, having marginally risen from the totals for the year ended March (124,186) and April (124,445).
The long-term average for May years (2002-19) before Covid-19 is 119,200 migrant arrivals, 91,500 migrant departures and a net migration gain of 27,700.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the slowing arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens and record number of departures reflected the relatively weak position of the economy.
“The cooling in net immigration inflows from late 2023 peaks look to be a major factor contributing to the sluggish pace of consumer demand and the housing market of late,” Smith said.
Smith expected annual net migration inflows to remain below historical averages over the remainder of this year and to gradually strengthen over 2026.
“Our assessment is that low net immigration will likely dampen medium-term inflationary pressures, supporting a lower Official Cash Rate [OCR]. We expect a 25-basis-points [bps] cut and a 3.0% OCR by August.
“Continued weakening in net immigration could see the RBNZ [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] push the OCR lower than this, but the NZ monetary policy outlook is uncertain and highly conditional on a myriad of local and global factors.”
Annual net migration peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 135,500, Stats NZ said. Annual migrant arrivals also peaked over the same period at 234,800.
Visitor numbers plateau in May
Overseas visitor arrivals in May were 87% below pre-pandemic levels, Stats NZ said today.
Stats NZ figures show there were 190,600 overseas visitors in May, up 10,900 compared with a year ago, but down from 219,300 in May 2019.
The biggest changes in arrivals came from Australia (up 4200), China (up 2300) and the United States (up 1300).
Australians made up the bulk of visitor arrivals in May (45%), ahead of the United States and China at 9% each.
There were also 239,000 New Zealand-resident traveller arrivals in May – a record for a May month.
Record arrivals, for a May month, came from destinations including Australia (98,500), Fiji (16,000) and China (12,300).
Meanwhile, annual overseas visitor arrivals were 3.37 million in the May 2025 year, an increase of 167,000 from the May 2024 year.
The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up 145,000 to 1.44 million), China (up 24,000 to 250,000) and the United Kingdom (up 18,000 to 188,000).
Smith said annual visitor numbers were about 14% below the pre-Covid highs of about 4 million.
“Annual arrivals have largely plateaued for most major markets. The challenge will be to try and grow the sector at a time of heightened global uncertainty,” Smith said.
Cameron Smith is an Auckland-based business reporter with the Herald live news team. He joined the Herald in 2015 and has covered business and sports. He reports on topics such as retail, small business, the workplace, and macro-economics.
