Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's shown us once already that she knows when to fold 'em.

Ditching the capital gains tax was a gutsy bit of politics as cynical as kindness is desirable.

Taxing wealth was going to bog the government down, so she cut it free.


Today's Cabinet reshuffle is a similar opportunity to cut free a minister associated with another limping policy: Phil Twyford and KiwiBuild respectively.

So much money is on Phil Twyford being ditched as Housing and Urban Development Minister today that a betting person might take a punt the other way just for the odds.