NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Economy

Budget 2017: Economic growth seen peaking at 3.8pc in 2019

By Rebecca Howard
BusinessDesk·
25 May, 2017 02:18 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Finance Minister Steven Joyce, escorted by Prime Minister Bill English on his way to read his Budget 2017. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Finance Minister Steven Joyce, escorted by Prime Minister Bill English on his way to read his Budget 2017. Photo / Mark Mitchell

New Zealand's economic growth is tipped to peak in 2019, boosted by ongoing population growth, investment, and a new family incomes package announced in Finance Minister Steven Joyce's maiden budget. Growth, however, then tapers off as net migration subsides, construction growth eases and rising interest rates begin to bite.

While the economy expanded less than expected this year as exports, residential investment and business investment grew at a slower pace than anticipated, "growth is forecast to accelerate to a peak of 3.8 per cent in 2019 as investment growth gains momentum and private consumption is supported by fiscal stimulus associated with the family incomes package," Treasury said.

The $2 billion family incomes package - which will come into play in April 2018 - is expected to benefit about 1.3 million families in New Zealand by, on average, $26 per week. Treasury expects households to spend the majority of the boost to their incomes. Overall it is "estimated to have a modest positive long-run impact on GDP," it said.

The Treasury also expects residential investment growth to pick up again "after a temporary pause in 2017" as rapid population growth and low interest rates fuel demand for housing, although it will ease from 2019 onwards as supply increases to meet demand, it said. House prices lift 7.8 per cent in the year to June 2018 after increasing 5.1 per cent in the current year, according to Treasury forecasts. It also expects business investment to pick up, further supporting economic growth.

It is expecting real GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in the year to June versus a prior forecast of 3.6 per cent. It now expects the economy to grow 3.5 per cent in the year to June 2018 and 3.8 per cent in the following year versus a prior forecast of 3.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent. Growth now eases to 2.9 per cent in the year to June 2020 and 2.4 per cent in the year to June 2021. Prior forecasts were for 2.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent growth respectively.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Population growth continues to support the economy in the short-term. According to Treasury, net migration has continued to outpace its expectations, with annual net migration rising to 71,900 in the year to March 2017. While net migration is now expected to remain higher for longer, Treasury is tipping it to peak at 72,500 in mid-2017 before beginning to ease. Overall, it expects net migration to add 212,000 people over the next four-and-a-half years, around 67,000 more people than it previously forecast.

The high inflow of people mans that unemployment is forecast to remain flat at around 5 per cent over the year ahead, as rapid labour force growth is balanced by robust employment growth. However, it will ease to 4.3 per cent in 2020, the forecasts show.

It notes that employment growth is stronger than it forecast in the half year economic and fiscal update but the labour force is also forecast to increase at a faster rate "meaning spare capacity in the economy is not used up as quickly as previously anticipated." The result is a higher unemployment rate and weaker wage growth over the period.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Tepid wage growth has largely kept inflation under wraps. While Treasury noted that inflation surpassed 2 per cent in early 2017 this was largely driven by temporary price movements. However, it is forecast at 2.1 per cent in the year to June 2019, as spare capacity is absorbed and capacity pressures build, in part due to stimulus from family incomes package, it said. This will lead to a gradual lift in interest rates.

It forecasts the 90-day bank bill - widely viewed as a proxy for the official cash rate - to remain at 2 per cent in the year to June 2018 before gradually raising to 3.9 per cent by the year to June 2021. While the end point is similar to its December forecast, it now sees rates at 2.7 in the year to June 2019 and 3.4 per cent in the year to June 2020 versus a prior forecast of 2.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent.

Earlier this month, the central bank left interest rates on hold at a record low 1.75 per cent and continued to forecast that they will remain unchanged until mid-2019.

Treasury also said the country's terms of trade remains higher than it expected in the December forecasts given a recovery in export prices and a slide in import prices. However, it expects it to now remain flat, tipping import prices to remain "relatively muted," largely due to a gradual increase in oil prices, and for export prices to "increase gradually" over the forecast period.

Discover more

New Zealand|politics

Budget 2017: Nothing that will fix Auckland transport woes - Greens

25 May 03:58 AM
Companies

NZ dollar hurt by China rating, falling commodities

26 May 08:19 AM

The high terms of trade is one factor underpinning the New Zealand dollar. While it has fallen to around 76.1 on a trade-weighed-index basis, Treasury said it expects it to remain around current levels as the economy has continued to expand at a solid pace, interest rates are high compared to other advanced economies and the terms of trade remain high compared to historic averages. The forecasts show it reaching 76.9 in 2019 before easing to 74.7 in 2021. Its December forecast had it reaching 72.6 in the year to 2021.

Treasury underscored that "the economic outlook is subject to a range of risks and uncertainties, with global risks skewed to the downside while domestic risks are more balanced."

It pointed to potential disruption in global trade, uncertainty around US fiscal policy, financial stability in China, as well as the Australian economy. Domestically it signalled that uncertainty around net migration add to uncertainty around the economic outlook as does household consumption, saving and the housing market.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Economy

Premium
Business|personal finance

Surge in new vehicle sales: Industry insiders explain three factors behind spike

04 Jul 05:00 AM
Premium
Property

Rich-lister helps fund $2m+ Akl school pool upgrade

04 Jul 03:00 AM
Premium
Property

Kiwi storage chain owner sells up to Australian giant Kennards

04 Jul 01:00 AM

There’s more to Hawai‘i than beaches and buffets – here’s how to see it differently

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Economy

Premium
Surge in new vehicle sales: Industry insiders explain three factors behind spike

Surge in new vehicle sales: Industry insiders explain three factors behind spike

04 Jul 05:00 AM

Tesla and BYD fight it out in a resurgent EV market.

Premium
Rich-lister helps fund $2m+ Akl school pool upgrade

Rich-lister helps fund $2m+ Akl school pool upgrade

04 Jul 03:00 AM
Premium
Kiwi storage chain owner sells up to Australian giant Kennards

Kiwi storage chain owner sells up to Australian giant Kennards

04 Jul 01:00 AM
Premium
18,800 people booked for NZICC; anaesthetists, ophthalmologists the latest

18,800 people booked for NZICC; anaesthetists, ophthalmologists the latest

03 Jul 10:39 PM
From early mornings to easy living
sponsored

From early mornings to easy living

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP